Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%
+1300
-725

0.59
2.39		2.98
o3½-104
u3½-112

Games for Apr 28, 2026
Games for Apr 30, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Braga
Santa Clara		64.3%
15.2%		20.5%
+205
+158
+195
+165
1
2		-0.99756-1.02304-1.88717
Rio Ave
Vitoria		23.0%
50.2%		26.7%
+445
-148
+420
-130
0
2		-0.57632-0.62090-0.68834
Moreirense
Benfica		11.5%
70.1%		18.3%
+1800
-950
+2000
-950
1
4		-0.15589-0.15114-0.35473
Nacional
Tondela		31.3%
37.5%		31.2%
+154
+182
+155
+180
2
0		-0.98224-0.98709-1.16088
Tondela
Porto		4.7%
83.8%		11.6%
+1900
-667
+2200
-650
0
2		-0.19301-0.19097-0.17720
Famalicao
Braga		11.0%
73.1%		15.9%
+295
-108
+310
-110
2
2		-1.30926-1.31517-1.83841
Benfica
Sporting CP		31.7%
41.0%		27.3%
+265
-101
+255
+105
2
1		-1.35507-1.31684-1.14775
Vitoria
Gil Vicente FC		51.1%
22.6%		26.3%
+310
+100
+305
+100
1
0		-1.46132-1.44745-0.67199
Gil Vicente FC
Tondela		34.7%
34.1%		31.3%
-115
+340
-120
+400
2
2		-1.25706-1.24126-1.16293
Nacional
Benfica		7.6%
77.3%		15.1%
+1400
-750
+1525
-730
0
2		-0.18656-0.17923-0.25718
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		34.8%
34.0%		31.2%
+435
-137
+430
-140
2
0		-1.73449-1.71630-1.05527
Moreirense
Famalicao		34.4%
37.6%		28.0%
+650
-220
+700
-220
1
1		-1.47368-1.48444-1.27293
Famalicao
Porto		6.2%
81.8%		12.0%
+860
-256
+700
-245
2
2		-1.59974-1.57726-2.12352
Braga
Moreirense		61.5%
16.9%		21.6%
-183
+640
-200
+620
1
0		-0.44498-0.45374-0.48591
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		10.1%
71.9%		17.9%
+900
-305
+850
-300
2
4		-0.32450-0.33774-0.32960
Tondela
Vitoria		14.5%
63.5%		22.0%
+350
-115
+335
-110
0
5		-0.66764-0.69752-0.45391
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.99756 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.02304 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.88717
-0.88961
-0.86413

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).