Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated 29 days ago

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Games for Jun 16, 2026

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/16/2026 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Sporting CP	8.6% 74.9%	16.4%	+1200 -526 +1300 -550	0 3	-0.22332-0.21671	-0.28844
05/16/2026 05:00 PM	Vitoria Nacional	54.6% 19.8%	25.5%	+240 +114 +285 +105	0 2	-0.81484-0.76718	-1.61833
05/16/2026 02:30 PM	Santa Clara Porto	6.4% 79.9%	13.7%	+1000 -400 +950 -360	0 1	-0.27403-0.29558	-0.22394
05/11/2026 07:15 PM	Moreirense Tondela	41.8% 28.6%	29.6%	+300 -105 +300 +100	0 2	-0.73222-0.74482	-1.25271
05/11/2026 07:15 PM	Sporting CP Rio Ave	60.4% 16.5%	23.0%	-525 +1000 -535 +1160	4 1	-0.24093-0.22263	-0.50345
05/11/2026 07:15 PM	Braga Benfica	31.2% 42.9%	25.9%	+650 -265 +680 -260	2 2	-1.64248-1.65052	-1.35085
05/11/2026 07:15 PM	Nacional Santa Clara	24.8% 46.5%	28.6%	+230 +131 +230 +130	0 2	-0.88455-0.88201	-0.76477
05/04/2026 07:15 PM	Vitoria Sporting CP	18.1% 58.8%	23.0%	+900 -400 +815 -340	1 5	-0.28141-0.30537	-0.53020
05/03/2026 07:30 PM	Gil Vicente FC Rio Ave	24.4% 47.4%	28.3%	-112 +300 -110 +310	0 0	-1.33549-1.31517	-1.26390
05/02/2026 05:00 PM	Benfica Famalicao	67.0% 14.3%	18.7%	-161 +430 -160 +425	2 2	-1.44033-1.45955	-1.67729
04/29/2026 07:15 PM	Tondela Sporting CP	7.3% 77.5%	15.2%	+1700 -1200 +1900 -1000	2 2	-2.46510-2.44669	-1.88658
04/26/2026 05:00 PM	Braga Santa Clara	64.3% 15.2%	20.5%	+205 +158 +195 +165	1 2	-0.99756-1.02304	-1.88717
04/25/2026 07:30 PM	Rio Ave Vitoria	23.0% 50.2%	26.7%	+445 -148 +420 -130	0 2	-0.57632-0.62090	-0.68834
04/25/2026 05:00 PM	Moreirense Benfica	11.5% 70.1%	18.3%	+1800 -950 +2000 -950	1 4	-0.15589-0.15114	-0.35473
04/25/2026 02:30 PM	Nacional Tondela	31.3% 37.5%	31.2%	+154 +182 +155 +180	2 0	-0.98224-0.98709	-1.16088
04/19/2026 07:30 PM	Tondela Porto	4.7% 83.8%	11.6%	+1900 -667 +2200 -650	0 2	-0.19301-0.19097	-0.17720

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)	21.5	4.6	7.9	72.4	29.6%	67.2%	31.7%	0.0%
2	Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)	23.1	5.0	5.9	75.2	56.8%	85.1%	14.7%	0.0%
3	Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)	20.6	5.9	7.5	69.3	11.5%	38.1%	58.9%	0.0%
4	Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)	19.9	9.5	4.6	64.3	2.0%	9.3%	74.6%	0.0%
5	Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)	14.0	10.6	9.4	51.3	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.0%
6	Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)	16.1	10.3	7.6	55.9	0.1%	0.3%	15.5%	0.0%
7	Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)	10.5	12.4	11.1	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%
8	Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)	11.0	14.5	8.4	41.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%
9	Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)	10.7	16.0	7.2	39.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%
10	Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)	8.4	14.4	11.2	36.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.0%
12	Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.0	17.0	8.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.1%
13	Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)	9.3	16.6	8.1	36.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	20.6%
14	Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)	7.9	16.0	10.1	33.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.6%
15	Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)	10.0	13.4	10.6	40.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%
16	Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)	9.0	15.9	9.2	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.1%
17	SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)	8.3	17.6	8.2	32.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	37.0%
18	Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)	6.8	13.7	13.6	33.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).