UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Thiago Santos
Jamahal Hill		37.0%
63.0%
+285
-315
+285
-320
Loss
Win		-0.29430-0.29335-0.46148
Geoff Neal
Vicente Luque		71.2%
28.8%
+180
-190
+180
-188
Win
Loss		-1.04185-1.03950-0.33905
Sam Alvey
Michal Oleksiejczuk		44.4%
55.6%
+500
-600
+500
-650
Loss
Win		-0.17768-0.17589-0.58652
Miranda Granger
Cory McKenna		50.0%
50.0%
+169
-185
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.45279-0.45144-0.69315
Mayra Bueno Silva
Stephanie Egger		50.0%
50.0%
+105
-118
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.74651-0.78592-0.69315
Julianna Pena
Amanda Nunes		30.9%
69.1%
+210
-245
+215
-220
Loss
Win		-0.37449-0.37964-0.36977
Kai Kara-France
Brandon Moreno		37.4%
62.6%
+175
-205
+195
-210
Loss
Win		-0.43245-0.40573-0.46840
Alex Perez
Alexandre Pantoja		58.7%
41.3%
+170
-190
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.44809-0.42898-0.88450
Anthony Smith
Magomed Ankalaev		57.3%
42.7%
+470
-620
+500
-600
Loss
Win		-0.18543-0.17768-0.85085
Alex Morono
Matthew Semelsberger		71.0%
29.0%
+166
-185
+160
-175
Win
Loss		-1.00307-0.97625-0.34191
Joselyne Edwards
Ji Yeon Kim		50.0%
50.0%
-120
+104
-125
+115
Win
Loss		-0.64118-0.60825-0.69315
Tom Aspinall
Curtis Blaydes		18.7%
81.3%
-155
+137
-160
+150
Loss
Win		-0.89223-0.93156-0.20699
Alexander Gustafsson
Nikita Krylov		57.4%
42.6%
+170
-188
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44940-0.45144-0.85418
Hannah Goldy
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+425
-500
+450
-550
Loss
Win		-0.20586-0.19464-0.69315
Volkan Oezdemir
Paul Craig		76.1%
23.9%
-145
+130
-140
+135
Win
Loss		-0.55080-0.54782-0.27314
Charles Rosa
Nathaniel Wood		29.7%
70.3%
+450
-550
+500
-570
Loss
Win		-0.19464-0.17891-0.35310
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.