UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Kyle Nelson
Jai Herbert		68.5%
31.5%
+240
-278
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33641-0.34163-1.15414
Victoria Leonardo
Mandy Bohm		50.0%
50.0%
+105
-110
+110
-105
Win
Loss		-0.72940-0.73027-0.69315
Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega		43.8%
56.2%
+175
-190
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-1.03022-1.00641-0.82595
Michelle Waterson
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+265
-300
+270
-290
Loss
Win		-0.31137-0.31004-0.69315
Charles Jourdain
Shane Burgos		20.3%
79.7%
+157
-175
+160
-170
Loss
Win		-0.47715-0.47678-0.22728
Lauren Murphy
Miesha Tate		37.4%
62.6%
+185
-200
+180
-180
Win
Loss		-1.06470-1.02963-0.98326
Dalcha Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano		17.2%
82.8%
+230
-245
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35538-0.37637-0.18859
Jessica Penne
Emily Ducote		50.0%
50.0%
+150
-170
+155
-160
Loss
Win		-0.49182-0.49303-0.69315
Rafael Dos Anjos
Rafael Fiziev		54.3%
45.7%
+184
-210
+195
-215
Loss
Win		-0.41857-0.40323-0.78338
Jared Cannonier
Israel Adesanya		10.8%
89.2%
+450
-550
+525
-650
Loss
Win		-0.19464-0.16941-0.11469
Bryan Barberena
Robbie Lawler		54.4%
45.6%
-120
+110
-115
+105
Win
Loss		-0.62755-0.64814-0.60860
Jessica Eye
Maycee Barber		37.1%
62.9%
+270
-320
+275
-315
Loss
Win		-0.30361-0.30109-0.46337
Jessica-Rose Clark
Julija Stoliarenko		50.0%
50.0%
-145
+135
-150
+145
Loss
Win		-0.87165-0.90421-0.69315
Brian Kelleher
Mario Bautista		47.3%
52.7%
+170
-185
+180
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45144-0.44183-0.64065
Vanessa Demopoulos
Jinh Yu Frey		50.0%
50.0%
+193
-225
+200
-215
Win
Loss		-1.10806-1.11438-0.69315
Josh Emmett
Calvin Kattar		36.9%
63.1%
+210
-240
+225
-250
Win
Loss		-1.15948-1.20041-0.99821
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.