UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+110
-130
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Kron Gracie
Charles Jourdain		62.3%
37.7%
+144
-160
+140
-155
Loss
Win		-0.51043-0.52206-0.97464
Matt Frevola
Drew Dober		34.0%
66.0%
+185
-200
+185
-195
Win
Loss		-1.06470-1.05915-1.07955
Virna Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez		9.7%
90.3%
-115
-105
-105
+110
Win
Loss		-0.67172-0.65736-2.33738
Bruno Silva
Brad Tavares		6.8%
93.2%
+155
-160
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-0.94358-0.99458-2.68869
Jared Gordon
Bobby Green		34.6%
65.4%
+225
-260
+230
-260
Draw
Draw		-0.78152-0.78461-0.74268
Christos Giagos
Rick Glenn		64.0%
36.0%
+140
-144
+140
-150
Win
Loss		-0.88228-0.89199-0.44696
Arnold Allen
Max Holloway		35.1%
64.9%
+155
-165
+143
-160
Loss
Win		-0.48848-0.51206-0.43294
Billy Quarantillo
Edson Barboza		54.1%
45.9%
-165
+157
-170
+160
Loss
Win		-0.95558-0.96964-0.77910
Ion Cutelaba
Tanner Boser		51.6%
48.4%
-110
+110
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.64663-0.59012-0.66109
Pedro Munhoz
Chris Gutierrez		65.4%
34.6%
+205
-205
+220
-200
Win
Loss		-1.11514-1.14209-0.42529
Ed Herman
Zak Cummings		33.0%
67.0%
+185
-205
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42006-0.41690-0.40090
Jorge Masvidal
Gilbert Burns		51.2%
48.8%
+335
-370
+350
-400
Loss
Win		-0.25621-0.24512-0.71697
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Kevin Holland		74.6%
25.4%
+220
-251
+240
-250
Loss
Win		-0.36256-0.34485-1.37160
Michelle Waterson
Luana Pinheiro		50.0%
50.0%
+130
-141
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.55568-0.53299-0.69315
Cynthia Calvillo
Loopy Godinez		50.0%
50.0%
+220
-244
+228
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36504-0.35901-0.69315
Sam Hughes
Jaqueline Amorim		50.0%
50.0%
+240
-270
+245
-267
Win
Loss		-1.24733-1.25558-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.