UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for August 16, 2025

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Diego Ferreira
Bobby Green 		77.5%
22.5%
-150
+133
-155
+140
Gerald Meerschaert
Michal Oleksiejczuk 		54.9%
45.1%
+185
-220
+195
-220
Chase Hooper
Alexander Hernandez 		23.5%
76.5%
-320
+275
-320
+300
Fights for Aug 15, 2025
Fights for Aug 17, 2025

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ciryl Gane
Jon Jones		19.9%
80.1%
+160
-160
+148
-160
Loss
Win		-0.48552-0.50395-0.22177
Alexa Grasso
Valentina Shevchenko		7.3%
92.7%
+620
-800
+750
-825
Win
Loss		-2.00144-2.14952-2.62362
Trevin Jones
Cody Garbrandt		14.6%
85.4%
+160
-175
+160
-175
Loss
Win		-0.47276-0.47276-0.15826
Jessica Penne
Tabatha Ricci		50.0%
50.0%
+315
-330
+325
-300
Loss
Win		-0.27306-0.27286-0.69315
Don'Tale Mayes
Augusto Sakai		5.4%
94.6%
-115
+100
-105
-105
Loss
Win		-0.72743-0.69315-0.05601
Montana De La Rosa
Tatiana Suarez		2.7%
97.3%
+650
-750
+650
-740
Loss
Win		-0.14072-0.14093-0.02701
Erin Blanchfield
Jessica Andrade		50.0%
50.0%
+107
-112
+110
-115
Win
Loss		-0.73888-0.75294-0.69315
Josh Emmett
Yair Rodriguez		39.5%
60.5%
+158
-177
+170
-170
Loss
Win		-0.47411-0.46262-0.50317
Alonzo Menifield
Jimmy Crute		33.3%
66.7%
+155
-165
+150
-165
Draw
Draw		-0.71963-0.71743-0.75233
Elise Reed
Loma Lookboonmee		50.0%
50.0%
+290
-340
+320
-300
Loss
Win		-0.28655-0.27571-0.69315
Blagoy Ivanov
Marcin Tybura		62.7%
37.3%
+135
-145
+130
-135
Loss
Win		-0.54173-0.56352-0.98658
Glover Teixeira
Jamahal Hill		49.3%
50.7%
+125
-125
+130
-140
Loss
Win		-0.58778-0.55696-0.67964
Deiveson Figueiredo
Brandon Moreno		73.8%
26.2%
+125
-115
+125
-135
Loss
Win		-0.60482-0.57304-1.34075
Neil Magny
Gilbert Burns		33.9%
66.1%
+475
-485
+450
-505
Loss
Win		-0.19043-0.19706-0.41328
Lauren Murphy
Jessica Andrade		21.8%
78.2%
+485
-525
+425
-510
Loss
Win		-0.18523-0.20524-0.24550
Paul Craig
Johnny Walker		30.1%
69.9%
+160
-170
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.47678-0.45144-0.35752
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0 (1.000)0-0.26234 
Sportsbooks22-0 (1.000)0-0.26594 
DRatings20-1 (0.250)1-1.28042
-1.01808
-1.01448

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.