UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tim Means
Kevin Holland		45.3%
54.7%
+280
-330
+280
-320
Loss
Win		-0.29484-0.29670-0.60256
Natalia Silva
Jasmine Jasudavicius		50.0%
50.0%
+215
-250
+225
-245
Win
Loss		-1.17866-1.19634-0.69315
Danny Chavez
Ricardo Ramos		24.6%
75.4%
+285
-330
+280
-300
Loss
Win		-0.29152-0.30075-0.28214
Maria Oliveira
Gloria de Paula		50.0%
50.0%
+260
-300
+250
-280
Win
Loss		-1.30833-1.27508-0.69315
Eddie Wineland
Cody Stamann		23.5%
76.5%
+600
-670
+630
-800
Loss
Win		-0.15202-0.14333-0.26729
Roman Dolidze
Kyle Daukaus		91.7%
8.3%
+244
-265
+220
-240
Win
Loss		-1.25204-1.18136-0.08653
Glover Teixeira
Jiri Prochazka		30.9%
69.1%
+190
-202
+195
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41577-0.40573-0.36983
Taila Santos
Valentina Shevchenko		50.0%
50.0%
+440
-550
+450
-550
Loss
Win		-0.19791-0.19464-0.69315
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Zhang Weili		15.5%
84.5%
+150
-155
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.50566-0.51371-0.16895
Silvana Gomez Juarez
Na Liang		50.0%
50.0%
+110
-120
+100
-118
Win
Loss		-0.76336-0.73359-0.69315
Ramona Pascual
Joselyne Edwards		50.0%
50.0%
+142
-157
+150
-160
Loss
Win		-0.51666-0.50078-0.69315
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Alexander Volkov		68.0%
32.0%
+152
-172
+165
-170
Loss
Win		-0.48708-0.46959-1.14087
Dan Ige
Movsar Evloev		42.2%
57.8%
+390
-400
+340
-400
Loss
Win		-0.22721-0.25005-0.54837
Felice Herrig
Karolina Kowalkiewicz		60.5%
39.5%
-112
-104
-115
+100
Loss
Win		-0.71113-0.72743-0.92806
Ketlen Vieira
Holly Holm		34.4%
65.6%
+210
-220
+205
-220
Win
Loss		-1.14144-1.13038-1.06598
Michel Pereira
Santiago Ponzinibbio		14.9%
85.1%
-140
+125
-135
+125
Win
Loss		-0.56639-0.57304-1.90408
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.