UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+150
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Polyana Viana
Tabatha Ricci		50.0%
50.0%
+110
-128
+115
-130
Loss
Win		-0.61423-0.60042-0.69315
Felipe Colares
Chase Hooper		37.9%
62.1%
-180
+160
-180
+170
Loss
Win		-0.98262-1.00641-0.47593
Sam Hughes
Elise Reed		50.0%
50.0%
+125
-136
+130
-135
Win
Loss		-0.83144-0.84211-0.69315
Jan Blachowicz
Aleksandar Rakic		38.7%
61.3%
+175
-200
+190
-210
Win
Loss		-1.04146-1.08672-0.94827
Louis Smolka
Davey Grant		72.8%
27.2%
+265
-275
+255
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31743-0.32375-1.30151
Amanda Ribas
Katlyn Chookagian		60.6%
39.4%
+165
-185
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45828-0.46185-0.93072
Angela Hill
Virna Jandiroba		79.6%
20.4%
+180
-210
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.40084-1.58875
Justin Gaethje
Charles Oliveira		66.9%
33.1%
+125
-140
+130
-135
Loss
Win		-0.56639-0.56352-1.10485
Mauricio Rua
Ovince Saint Preux		41.6%
58.4%
+220
-225
+205
-230
Loss
Win		-0.37251-0.38554-0.53770
Danny Roberts
Francisco Trinaldo		28.2%
71.8%
-115
+126
-115
+115
Loss
Win		-0.79246-0.76546-0.33097
Macy Chiasson
Norma Dumont		87.8%
12.2%
+190
-210
+195
-215
Win
Loss		-1.08672-1.10310-0.12988
Melissa Gatto
Tracy Cortez		50.0%
50.0%
+100
-115
+105
-120
Loss
Win		-0.66000-0.63885-0.69315
Marlon Vera
Rob Font		30.7%
69.3%
-110
+100
-105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.67015-0.68116-1.18084
Jake Collier
Andrei Arlovski		52.6%
47.4%
+115
-108
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.63963-0.62755-0.74756
Jared Gordon
Grant Dawson		16.4%
83.6%
+195
-220
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.40084-0.41146-0.17970
Krzysztof Jotko
Gerald Meerschaert		41.6%
58.4%
-210
+190
-200
+195
Win
Loss		-0.41146-0.41110-0.87659
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.