UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+145
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Amanda Lemos
Jessica Andrade		50.0%
50.0%
+230
-255
+235
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35197-0.35270-0.69315
Montana De La Rosa
Maycee Barber		17.4%
82.6%
+160
-177
+160
-175
Loss
Win		-0.47120-0.47276-0.19077
Marc-Andre Barriault
Jordan Wright		44.7%
55.3%
-200
+182
-200
+180
Win
Loss		-0.42652-0.42898-0.80486
Dwight Grant
Sergey Khandozhko		71.9%
28.1%
+115
-115
+113
-115
Loss
Win		-0.62571-0.63006-1.27033
Belal Muhammad
Vicente Luque		41.4%
58.6%
+170
-170
+160
-170
Win
Loss		-0.99325-0.96964-0.88269
Wu Yanan
Mayra Bueno Silva		50.0%
50.0%
+525
-500
+400
-500
Loss
Win		-0.17563-0.21511-0.69315
Lina Lansberg
Pannie Kianzad		58.8%
41.2%
+535
-500
+430
-450
Loss
Win		-0.17309-0.20750-0.88649
Sam Hughes
Istela Nunes		50.0%
50.0%
+220
-215
+208
-230
Win
Loss		-1.15817-1.14633-0.69315
Aljamain Sterling
Petr Yan		28.9%
71.1%
+350
-400
+365
-400
Win
Loss		-1.52606-1.55183-1.24244
Gilbert Burns
Khamzat Chimaev		44.0%
56.0%
+435
-500
+475
-535
Loss
Win		-0.20237-0.18766-0.57941
Tecia Torres
Mackenzie Dern		78.4%
21.6%
+115
-117
+100
-110
Loss
Win		-0.62200-0.67015-1.53114
Aspen Ladd
Raquel Pennington		64.9%
35.1%
+150
-145
+140
-152
Loss
Win		-0.51632-0.52520-1.04674
Chris Daukaus
Curtis Blaydes		8.9%
91.1%
+425
-550
+475
-550
Loss
Win		-0.20303-0.18692-0.09299
Joanne Calderwood
Alexa Grasso		39.4%
60.6%
+250
-280
+245
-250
Loss
Win		-0.32768-0.34060-0.50109
Bryan Barberena
Matt Brown		57.5%
42.5%
-105
-102
-110
+100
Win
Loss		-0.68605-0.67015-0.55283
Max Griffin
Neil Magny		29.9%
70.1%
+215
-250
+230
-260
Loss
Win		-0.36772-0.35037-0.35476
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.