UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+145
-170
+150
Aljamain Sterling
Movsar Evloev 		71.4%
28.6%


Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jennifer Maia
Manon Fiorot		50.0%
50.0%
+390
-470
+380
-450
Loss
Win		-0.22115-0.22684-0.69315
Tom Aspinall
Alexander Volkov		36.4%
63.6%
-120
+120
-135
+120
Win
Loss		-0.60614-0.58291-1.01159
Dan Hooker
Arnold Allen		34.2%
65.8%
+100
-105
-105
-105
Loss
Win		-0.68116-0.69315-0.41926
Luana Carolina
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+127
-140
+125
-135
Loss
Win		-0.56258-0.57304-0.69315
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Sergei Pavlovich		37.1%
62.9%
+300
-335
+290
-320
Loss
Win		-0.28113-0.29008-0.46397
Paul Craig
Nikita Krylov		30.4%
69.6%
+191
-215
+182
-200
Win
Loss		-1.09401-1.05780-1.19135
Elise Reed
Cory McKenna		50.0%
50.0%
+285
-320
+280
-300
Win
Loss		-1.36948-1.34807-0.69315
Thiago Santos
Magomed Ankalaev		53.2%
46.8%
+650
-700
+600
-650
Loss
Win		-0.14183-0.15258-0.75935
Alex Caceres
Sodiq Yusuff		11.1%
88.9%
+250
-275
+250
-265
Loss
Win		-0.32902-0.33183-0.11723
Karl Roberson
Khalil Rountree Jr.		61.7%
38.3%
-145
+132
-135
+130
Loss
Win		-0.86420-0.84211-0.95982
Jorge Masvidal
Colby Covington		49.8%
50.2%
+265
-300
+280
-290
Loss
Win		-0.31137-0.30300-0.68995
Renato Moicano
Rafael Dos Anjos		50.4%
49.6%
+170
-178
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45643-0.45497-0.70199
Edson Barboza
Bryce Mitchell		50.2%
49.8%
+153
-172
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.48555-0.48102-0.69699
Alex Oliveira
Kevin Holland		48.6%
51.4%
+485
-450
+400
-410
Loss
Win		-0.18973-0.22217-0.66472
Maryna Moroz
Mariya Agapova		50.0%
50.0%
+160
-170
+155
-170
Win
Loss		-0.96964-0.95763-0.69315
Bobby Green
Islam Makhachev		43.4%
56.6%
+700
-800
+650
-800
Loss
Win		-0.13158-0.13976-0.56888
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.