UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+170
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wellington Turman
Misha Cirkunov		40.0%
60.0%
+145
-145
+141
-150
Win
Loss		-0.89610-0.89446-0.91572
Priscila Cachoeira
Ji Yeon Kim		50.0%
50.0%
+165
-172
+160
-155
Win
Loss		-0.98422-0.94794-0.69315
Joel Alvarez
Arman Tsarukyan		61.8%
38.2%
+265
-290
+255
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31367-0.32375-0.96210
Ramona Pascual
Josiane Nunes		50.0%
50.0%
+235
-265
+255
-270
Loss
Win		-0.34441-0.32644-0.69315
Johnny Walker
Jamahal Hill		36.2%
63.8%
+220
-200
+200
-210
Loss
Win		-0.38441-0.40015-0.44992
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Joaquin Buckley		85.7%
14.3%
+137
-150
+135
-150
Loss
Win		-0.53253-0.53604-1.94526
Stephanie Egger
Jessica-Rose Clark		50.0%
50.0%
+167
-190
+160
-175
Win
Loss		-1.01134-0.97625-0.69315
Mark Striegl
Chas Skelly		37.3%
62.7%
+183
-210
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.41978-0.42898-0.46673
Gloria de Paula
Diana Belbita		50.0%
50.0%
+112
-125
+117
-130
Win
Loss		-0.77831-0.80044-0.69315
Robert Whittaker
Israel Adesanya		23.4%
76.6%
+250
-290
+255
-275
Loss
Win		-0.32515-0.32507-0.26623
Tai Tuivasa
Derrick Lewis		29.3%
70.7%
+157
-167
+165
-175
Win
Loss		-0.95836-0.98819-1.22775
Derek Brunson
Jared Cannonier		54.0%
46.0%
+140
-159
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.51803-0.53299-0.77699
Alexander Hernandez
Renato Moicano		36.6%
63.4%
+140
-155
+135
-150
Loss
Win		-0.52206-0.53604-0.45586
Nasrat Haqparast
Bobby Green		14.1%
85.9%
+144
-145
+120
-140
Loss
Win		-0.52619-0.57618-0.15252
Roxanne Modafferi
Casey O'Neill		50.0%
50.0%
+295
-350
+330
-355
Loss
Win		-0.28178-0.26088-0.69315
Sam Alvey
Brendan Allen		25.3%
74.7%
+305
-380
+340
-365
Loss
Win		-0.27147-0.25429-0.29192
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.68473 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.69102 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-1.25815
-0.57342
-0.56713

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.