UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+168
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
John Castaneda
Miles Johns		54.1%
45.9%
+145
-170
+155
-165
Win
Loss		-0.93318-0.95078-0.61459
Julija Stoliarenko
Alexis Davis		50.0%
50.0%
+240
-275
+230
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33724-0.35037-0.69315
Ciryl Gane
Francis Ngannou		26.2%
73.8%
-140
+125
-138
+135
Loss
Win		-0.83833-0.85977-0.30389
Deiveson Figueiredo
Brandon Moreno		73.8%
26.2%
+161
-180
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-0.98502-1.03022-0.30334
Cody Stamann
Said Nurmagomedov		41.4%
58.6%
+160
-180
+165
-170
Loss
Win		-0.46893-0.46959-0.53471
Vanessa Demopoulos
Silvana Gomez Juarez		50.0%
50.0%
-145
+140
-140
+125
Win
Loss		-0.53299-0.56639-0.69315
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Kay Hansen		50.0%
50.0%
+160
-185
+155
-165
Win
Loss		-0.98867-0.95078-0.69315
Calvin Kattar
Giga Chikadze		72.6%
27.4%
+190
-225
+200
-210
Win
Loss		-1.10118-1.10933-0.32021
Jennifer Maia
Katlyn Chookagian		31.3%
68.7%
+205
-220
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.38995-0.41146-0.37481
Ramiz Brahimaj
Court McGee		47.7%
52.3%
-113
+115
-125
+115
Loss
Win		-0.76108-0.78592-0.64754
Derrick Lewis
Chris Daukaus		78.1%
21.9%
+110
-125
+125
-135
Win
Loss		-0.77319-0.82968-0.24762
Belal Muhammad
Stephen Thompson		51.7%
48.3%
+200
-230
+195
-210
Win
Loss		-1.12846-1.09808-0.65900
Angela Hill
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+240
-300
+250
-270
Loss
Win		-0.33085-0.33041-0.69315
Raphael Assuncao
Ricky Simon		51.2%
48.8%
+275
-315
+275
-300
Loss
Win		-0.30109-0.30422-0.71830
Darren Elkins
Cub Swanson		41.7%
58.3%
+149
-170
+150
-157
Loss
Win		-0.49338-0.50367-0.53945
Sijara Eubanks
Melissa Gatto		50.0%
50.0%
-160
+140
-155
+145
Loss
Win		-0.90701-0.91198-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.73260 
Sportsbooks20-2 (0.000)0-0.72936 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.64445
0.08815
0.08490

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.