UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+110
-128
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Anthony Smith
Magomed Ankalaev		57.3%
42.7%
+470
-620
+500
-600
Loss
Win		-0.18543-0.17768-0.85085
Alex Morono
Matthew Semelsberger		71.0%
29.0%
+166
-185
+160
-175
Win
Loss		-1.00307-0.97625-0.34191
Joselyne Edwards
Ji Yeon Kim		50.0%
50.0%
-120
+104
-125
+115
Win
Loss		-0.64118-0.60825-0.69315
Tom Aspinall
Curtis Blaydes		18.7%
81.3%
-155
+137
-160
+150
Loss
Win		-0.89223-0.93156-0.20699
Alexander Gustafsson
Nikita Krylov		57.4%
42.6%
+170
-188
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44940-0.45144-0.85418
Hannah Goldy
Molly McCann		50.0%
50.0%
+425
-500
+450
-550
Loss
Win		-0.20586-0.19464-0.69315
Volkan Oezdemir
Paul Craig		76.1%
23.9%
-145
+130
-140
+135
Win
Loss		-0.55080-0.54782-0.27314
Charles Rosa
Nathaniel Wood		29.7%
70.3%
+450
-550
+500
-570
Loss
Win		-0.19464-0.17891-0.35310
Kyle Nelson
Jai Herbert		68.5%
31.5%
+240
-278
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33641-0.34163-1.15414
Victoria Leonardo
Mandy Bohm		50.0%
50.0%
+105
-110
+110
-105
Win
Loss		-0.72940-0.73027-0.69315
Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega		43.8%
56.2%
+175
-190
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-1.03022-1.00641-0.82595
Michelle Waterson
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+265
-300
+270
-290
Loss
Win		-0.31137-0.31004-0.69315
Charles Jourdain
Shane Burgos		20.3%
79.7%
+157
-175
+160
-170
Loss
Win		-0.47715-0.47678-0.22728
Lauren Murphy
Miesha Tate		37.4%
62.6%
+185
-200
+180
-180
Win
Loss		-1.06470-1.02963-0.98326
Dalcha Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano		17.2%
82.8%
+230
-245
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35538-0.37637-0.18859
Jessica Penne
Emily Ducote		50.0%
50.0%
+150
-170
+155
-160
Loss
Win		-0.49182-0.49303-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.