UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+168
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Andre Ewell
Charles Jourdain		42.3%
57.7%
+197
-232
+190
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39328-0.40651-0.55016
Macy Chiasson
Raquel Pennington		30.8%
69.2%
+118
-135
+120
-130
Loss
Win		-0.58695-0.59012-0.36826
Charles Oliveira
Dustin Poirier		29.9%
70.1%
+107
-126
+125
-130
Win
Loss		-0.76735-0.82055-1.20791
Julianna Pena
Amanda Nunes		30.9%
69.1%
+675
-1010
+850
-900
Win
Loss		-2.08594-2.25656-1.17406
Geoff Neal
Santiago Ponzinibbio		73.4%
26.6%
-105
-110
+110
-125
Win
Loss		-0.70441-0.77319-0.30911
Kai Kara-France
Cody Garbrandt		31.5%
68.5%
+123
-141
+125
-135
Win
Loss		-0.83494-0.82968-1.15515
Raulian Paiva
Sean O'Malley		12.4%
87.6%
+270
-315
+280
-295
Loss
Win		-0.30458-0.30185-0.13294
Dan Ige
Josh Emmett		41.5%
58.5%
+115
-130
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.60042-0.60825-0.53587
Pedro Munhoz
Dominick Cruz		59.8%
40.2%
-110
-110
-105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.69315-0.68201-0.91115
Augusto Sakai
Tai Tuivasa		82.8%
17.2%
+115
-125
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.60825-0.60825-1.75991
Jordan Wright
Bruno Silva		83.2%
16.8%
+256
-306
+260
-310
Loss
Win		-0.31678-0.31290-1.78248
Miranda Maverick
Erin Blanchfield		50.0%
50.0%
-135
+120
-135
+130
Loss
Win		-0.81706-0.84211-0.69315
Tony Kelley
Randy Costa		69.8%
30.2%
+180
-200
+180
-185
Win
Loss		-1.05317-1.03586-0.35929
Priscila Cachoeira
Gillian Robertson		50.0%
50.0%
+270
-330
+290
-280
Loss
Win		-0.30171-0.29861-0.69315
Jose Aldo
Rob Font		59.6%
40.4%
+105
-125
+115
-128
Win
Loss		-0.76029-0.79164-0.51777
Jamahal Hill
Jimmy Crute		59.1%
40.9%
+165
-190
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-1.00657-0.99458-0.52668
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.73260 
Sportsbooks20-2 (0.000)0-0.72936 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.64445
0.08815
0.08490

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.