UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+168
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-168
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Clay Guida
Leonardo Santos		8.3%
91.7%
+200
-225
+195
-200
Win
Loss		-1.12393-1.08743-2.48855
Mickey Gall
Alex Morono		41.0%
59.0%
+217
-255
+230
-250
Loss
Win		-0.36406-0.35364-0.52836
Maki Pitolo
Dusko Todorovic		6.1%
93.9%
+162
-185
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.46248-0.45497-0.06287
Cheyanne Buys
Mallory Martin		50.0%
50.0%
-210
+187
-195
+175
Win
Loss		-0.41499-0.43833-0.69315
Vince Morales
Louis Smolka		35.4%
64.6%
+145
-170
+160
-160
Win
Loss		-0.93318-0.95550-1.03885
Miesha Tate
Ketlen Vieira		48.4%
51.6%
-115
+100
-105
+100
Loss
Win		-0.72743-0.70528-0.66099
Joanne Calderwood
Taila Santos		50.0%
50.0%
+360
-420
+330
-370
Loss
Win		-0.23835-0.25884-0.69315
Loopy Godinez
Loma Lookboonmee		50.0%
50.0%
-137
+135
-140
+135
Win
Loss		-0.55166-0.54782-0.69315
Yair Rodriguez
Max Holloway		36.3%
63.7%
+485
-650
+500
-550
Loss
Win		-0.18001-0.17980-0.45080
Andrea Lee
Cynthia Calvillo		50.0%
50.0%
+110
-107
+105
-115
Win
Loss		-0.73501-0.74028-0.69315
Cortney Casey
Liana Jojua		50.0%
50.0%
-350
+290
-330
+320
Win
Loss		-0.28493-0.27022-0.69315
Colby Covington
Kamaru Usman		16.0%
84.0%
+250
-300
+255
-280
Loss
Win		-0.32277-0.32375-0.17467
Frankie Edgar
Marlon Vera		69.1%
30.9%
+130
-150
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.54502-0.53299-1.17587
Billy Quarantillo
Shane Burgos		44.8%
55.2%
+160
-164
+155
-150
Loss
Win		-0.48190-0.50296-0.59356
Al Iaquinta
Bobby Green		52.3%
47.7%
+170
-190
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44809-0.45497-0.73936
Paulo Costa
Marvin Vettori		70.4%
29.6%
+170
-184
+175
-175
Loss
Win		-0.45213-0.45199-1.21675
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.