UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lauren Murphy
Valentina Shevchenko		5.4%
94.6%
+950
-1380
+900
-1400
Loss
Win		-0.09726-0.10178-0.05511
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Curtis Blaydes		46.2%
53.8%
+275
-350
+285
-325
Loss
Win		-0.29480-0.29241-0.61897
Cynthia Calvillo
Jessica Andrade		50.0%
50.0%
+190
-205
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.41412-0.41690-0.69315
Merab Dvalishvili
Marlon Moraes		17.3%
82.7%
-265
+256
-270
+265
Win
Loss		-0.32707-0.31877-1.75290
Nasrat Haqparast
Dan Hooker		9.2%
90.8%
+135
-145
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.54173-0.54782-0.09640
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Chris Daukaus		64.9%
35.1%
+184
-214
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.41650-0.42898-1.04791
Roxanne Modafferi
Taila Santos		50.0%
50.0%
+325
-390
+350
-420
Loss
Win		-0.25899-0.24305-0.69315
Jonathan Pearce
Omar Morales		4.8%
95.2%
+127
-147
+135
-145
Win
Loss		-0.85482-0.87165-3.04073
Christos Giagos
Arman Tsarukyan		33.0%
67.0%
+600
-800
+575
-780
Loss
Win		-0.14903-0.15456-0.40007
Antonio Arroyo
Joaquin Buckley		33.0%
67.0%
+159
-180
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.47037-0.48102-0.40043
Raquel Pennington
Pannie Kianzad		81.2%
18.8%
-125
+111
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.61683-0.59012-0.20827
Erin Blanchfield
Sarah Alpar		50.0%
50.0%
-435
+360
-400
+350
Win
Loss		-0.23694-0.24512-0.69315
Hannah Goldy
Emily Whitmire		50.0%
50.0%
+107
-125
+108
-125
Win
Loss		-0.76548-0.76804-0.69315
Derek Brunson
Darren Till		47.7%
52.3%
+125
-144
+132
-140
Win
Loss		-0.84495-0.85583-0.73995
Serghei Spivac
Tom Aspinall		42.6%
57.4%
+225
-235
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36369-0.38995-0.55521
Alex Morono
David Zawada		76.9%
23.1%
-125
+109
-125
+110
Win
Loss		-0.62124-0.61904-0.26318
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.