UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bobby Green
Rafael Fiziev		38.8%
61.2%
+261
-270
+260
-300
Loss
Win		-0.32180-0.31508-0.49107
Ed Herman
Alonzo Menifield		47.7%
52.3%
+230
-250
+235
-260
Loss
Win		-0.35364-0.34595-0.64764
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jessica Penne		50.0%
50.0%
-125
+127
-145
+130
Loss
Win		-0.81586-0.85918-0.69315
Anderson Dos Santos
Miles Johns		24.5%
75.5%
+210
-200
+200
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39466-0.39531-0.28073
Victoria Leonardo
Melissa Gatto		50.0%
50.0%
+120
-110
+100
-110
Loss
Win		-0.62474-0.67015-0.69315
Gloria de Paula
Cheyanne Buys		50.0%
50.0%
+146
-158
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.50909-0.54782-0.69315
Jason Witt
Bryan Barberena		15.2%
84.8%
+250
-250
+225
-250
Win
Loss		-1.25278-1.20041-1.88295
Kai Kamaka
Danny Chavez		50.0%
50.0%
-119
+100
-110
+100
Draw
Draw		-0.69402-0.69342-0.69315
Jinh Yu Frey
Ashley Yoder		50.0%
50.0%
+145
-140
+140
-155
Win
Loss		-0.88756-0.89968-0.69315
TJ Dillashaw
Cory Sandhagen		57.8%
42.2%
+170
-185
+175
-200
Win
Loss		-1.01255-1.04146-0.54837
Raulian Paiva
Kyler Phillips		40.8%
59.2%
+290
-249
+275
-320
Win
Loss		-1.33041-1.34992-0.89754
Maycee Barber
Miranda Maverick		50.0%
50.0%
+140
-150
+147
-155
Win
Loss		-0.89199-0.91684-0.69315
Brendan Allen
Punahele Soriano		57.2%
42.8%
+110
-115
+100
-115
Win
Loss		-0.75294-0.72743-0.55793
Julio Arce
Andre Ewell		73.8%
26.2%
-195
+184
-200
+180
Win
Loss		-0.42702-0.42898-0.30434
Elise Reed
Tony Ferguson		50.0%
50.0%
+355
-260
+320
-360
Loss
Win		-0.26567-0.26562-0.69315
Diana Belbita
Hannah Goldy		50.0%
50.0%
+103
-105
+105
-110
Win
Loss		-0.71284-0.72940-0.69315
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.