UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+110
-128
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Yair Rodriguez
Max Holloway		36.3%
63.7%
+485
-650
+500
-550
Loss
Win		-0.18001-0.17980-0.45080
Andrea Lee
Cynthia Calvillo		50.0%
50.0%
+110
-107
+105
-115
Win
Loss		-0.73501-0.74028-0.69315
Cortney Casey
Liana Jojua		50.0%
50.0%
-350
+290
-330
+320
Win
Loss		-0.28493-0.27022-0.69315
Colby Covington
Kamaru Usman		16.0%
84.0%
+250
-300
+255
-280
Loss
Win		-0.32277-0.32375-0.17467
Frankie Edgar
Marlon Vera		69.1%
30.9%
+130
-150
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.54502-0.53299-1.17587
Billy Quarantillo
Shane Burgos		44.8%
55.2%
+160
-164
+155
-150
Loss
Win		-0.48190-0.50296-0.59356
Al Iaquinta
Bobby Green		52.3%
47.7%
+170
-190
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44809-0.45497-0.73936
Paulo Costa
Marvin Vettori		70.4%
29.6%
+170
-184
+175
-175
Loss
Win		-0.45213-0.45199-1.21675
Rick Glenn
Grant Dawson		10.7%
89.3%
+390
-500
+400
-450
Draw
Draw		-0.92251-0.92307-1.17306
Joselyne Edwards
Jessica-Rose Clark		50.0%
50.0%
+140
-145
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53299-0.54173-0.69315
Francisco Trinaldo
Dwight Grant		56.5%
43.5%
-130
+115
-120
+110
Win
Loss		-0.60042-0.62755-0.57141
Randa Markos
Livinha Souza		50.0%
50.0%
+110
-115
+115
-120
Win
Loss		-0.75294-0.77596-0.69315
Norma Dumont
Aspen Ladd		3.2%
96.8%
+122
-125
+122
-130
Win
Loss		-0.80350-0.81306-3.43176
Carlos Felipe
Andrei Arlovski		72.6%
27.4%
-110
+108
-115
+102
Loss
Win		-0.73693-0.73260-1.29583
Mayra Bueno Silva
Manon Fiorot		50.0%
50.0%
+280
-310
+275
-290
Loss
Win		-0.29866-0.30647-0.69315
Andrew Sanchez
Bruno Silva		87.5%
12.5%
+137
-155
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.52719-0.51371-2.07984
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.