UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for August 23, 2025

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Brian Ortega
Aljamain Sterling 		44.8%
55.2%
+370
-470
+400
-450
Fights for Aug 22, 2025
Fights for Sep 6, 2025

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Julian Erosa
Charles Jourdain		81.2%
18.8%
+160
-185
+170
-190
Win
Loss		-0.98867-1.01846-0.20832
Marc-Andre Barriault
Dalcha Lungiambula		55.0%
45.0%
-157
+150
-165
+150
Win
Loss		-0.50367-0.49617-0.59715
Edson Barboza
Giga Chikadze		49.1%
50.9%
-125
+115
-120
+110
Loss
Win		-0.78592-0.76336-0.67625
Kevin Lee
Daniel Rodriguez		40.4%
59.6%
-140
+122
-140
+125
Loss
Win		-0.83073-0.83833-0.51760
Alessio Di Chirico
Abdul Razak Alhassan		11.9%
88.1%
-240
+210
-245
+220
Loss
Win		-1.15948-1.18554-0.12648
Sam Alvey
Wellington Turman		36.2%
63.8%
+100
-115
+105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.66000-0.65817-0.44975
Kelvin Gastelum
Jared Cannonier		40.2%
59.8%
+130
-145
+135
-135
Loss
Win		-0.55080-0.55431-0.51442
Austin Hubbard
Vinc Pichel		51.9%
48.1%
+123
-140
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.57027-0.56639-0.73287
Domingo Pilarte
Brian Kelleher		15.3%
84.7%
+165
-185
+165
-175
Loss
Win		-0.45828-0.46561-0.16554
Josiane Nunes
Bea Malecki		50.0%
50.0%
+152
-165
+150
-155
Win
Loss		-0.94353-0.92410-0.69315
Derrick Lewis
Ciryl Gane		39.0%
61.0%
+270
-325
+290
-300
Loss
Win		-0.30265-0.29408-0.49415
Pedro Munhoz
Jose Aldo		52.4%
47.6%
+110
-110
-105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.64663-0.68201-0.74194
Michael Chiesa
Vicente Luque		34.6%
65.4%
+110
-108
-110
+105
Loss
Win		-0.65082-0.72940-0.42523
Tecia Torres
Angela Hill		67.0%
33.0%
-140
+145
-155
+150
Win
Loss		-0.53045-0.50566-0.40043
Bobby Green
Rafael Fiziev		38.8%
61.2%
+261
-270
+260
-300
Loss
Win		-0.32180-0.31508-0.49107
Ed Herman
Alonzo Menifield		47.7%
52.3%
+230
-250
+235
-260
Loss
Win		-0.35364-0.34595-0.64764
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.92228 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.94406 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.53170
0.39058
0.41237

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.