UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Na Liang
Ariane Carnelossi		50.0%
50.0%
+186
-214
+185
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41412-0.41737-0.69315
Kelvin Gastelum
Robert Whittaker		21.1%
78.9%
+225
-265
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.35332-0.36291-0.23743
Justine Kish
Tracy Cortez		50.0%
50.0%
+280
-320
+270
-300
Loss
Win		-0.29670-0.30775-0.69315
Bartosz Fabinski
Gerald Meerschaert		54.0%
46.0%
-115
+108
-125
+110
Loss
Win		-0.74790-0.77319-0.77607
Kevin Holland
Marvin Vettori		30.4%
69.6%
+260
-320
+270
-300
Loss
Win		-0.31086-0.30775-0.36235
Arnold Allen
Sodiq Yusuff		45.5%
54.5%
+133
-150
+130
-145
Win
Loss		-0.87465-0.85918-0.78654
Nina Nunes
Mackenzie Dern		71.8%
28.2%
-120
+108
-120
+120
Loss
Win		-0.75824-0.78845-1.26457
Mike Perry
Daniel Rodriguez		28.2%
71.8%
+105
-119
+105
-120
Loss
Win		-0.64065-0.63885-0.33149
Stipe Miocic
Francis Ngannou		41.2%
58.8%
+120
-135
+125
-134
Loss
Win		-0.58291-0.57442-0.53144
Tyron Woodley
Vicente Luque		39.6%
60.4%
+169
-194
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44685-0.45497-0.50354
Thomas Almeida
Sean O'Malley		22.4%
77.6%
+295
-325
+300
-330
Loss
Win		-0.28598-0.28198-0.25390
Gillian Robertson
Miranda Maverick		50.0%
50.0%
+140
-154
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.52308-0.51371-0.69315
Modestas Bukauskas
Michal Oleksiejczuk		63.9%
36.1%
+163
-185
+175
-175
Loss
Win		-0.46107-0.45199-1.01879
Omar Morales
Shane Young		57.6%
42.4%
-205
+181
-185
+175
Win
Loss		-0.42492-0.44482-0.55092
Derek Brunson
Kevin Holland		63.4%
36.6%
+190
-200
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.07614-1.07614-0.45593
Kenan Song
Max Griffin		63.5%
36.5%
+180
-210
+180
-185
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.43838-1.00893
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.