UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marion Reneau
Macy Chiasson		58.2%
41.8%
+201
-220
+215
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39423-0.37964-0.87292
Leonardo Santos
Grant Dawson		64.8%
35.2%
+170
-186
+175
-190
Loss
Win		-0.45075-0.44150-1.04319
Trevin Giles
Roman Dolidze		20.0%
80.0%
-105
-104
-105
+102
Win
Loss		-0.69081-0.67627-1.61049
Dan Ige
Gavin Tucker		75.6%
24.4%
-160
+165
-175
+170
Win
Loss		-0.47823-0.45869-0.27929
Davey Grant
Jonathan Martinez		30.0%
70.0%
+255
-305
+260
-310
Win
Loss		-1.30114-1.31423-1.20377
Ashley Yoder
Angela Hill		50.0%
50.0%
+275
-330
+270
-315
Loss
Win		-0.29823-0.30458-0.69315
Matthew Semelsberger
Jason Witt		71.0%
29.0%
-125
+110
-120
+110
Win
Loss		-0.61904-0.62755-0.34214
Megan Anderson
Amanda Nunes		12.7%
87.3%
+600
-815
+600
-675
Loss
Win		-0.14876-0.15188-0.13615
Aljamain Sterling
Petr Yan		28.9%
71.1%
+105
-123
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.75647-0.78592-1.24244
Drew Dober
Islam Makhachev		40.3%
59.7%
+370
-450
+380
-440
Loss
Win		-0.23115-0.22768-0.51522
Thiago Santos
Aleksandar Rakic		32.9%
67.1%
+184
-190
+170
-170
Loss
Win		-0.43012-0.46262-0.39876
Kai Kara-France
Rogerio Bontorin		53.2%
46.8%
-130
+115
-124
+115
Win
Loss		-0.60042-0.60989-0.63156
Livinha Souza
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+207
-225
+200
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38560-0.39531-0.69315
Trevin Jones
Mario Bautista		28.0%
72.0%
+195
-228
+195
-210
Win
Loss		-1.11535-1.09808-1.27372
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Ciryl Gane		61.2%
38.8%
+203
-230
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38765-0.40084-0.94747
Nikita Krylov
Magomed Ankalaev		52.0%
48.0%
+260
-310
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31290-0.32768-0.73468
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.