UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for August 23, 2025

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Brian Ortega
Aljamain Sterling 		44.8%
55.2%
+385
-500
+400
-450
Fights for Aug 22, 2025
Fights for Sep 6, 2025

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor		49.6%
50.4%
-130
+118
-125
+120
Win
Loss		-0.59419-0.59784-0.70031
Gilbert Burns
Stephen Thompson		56.2%
43.8%
+137
-157
+145
-155
Win
Loss		-0.89519-0.91198-0.57695
Greg Hardy
Tai Tuivasa		62.6%
37.4%
+110
-113
+105
-118
Loss
Win		-0.64059-0.64249-0.98401
Yana Kunitskaya
Irene Aldana		53.8%
46.2%
-115
+107
-115
+105
Loss
Win		-0.74537-0.74028-0.77299
Max Griffin
Carlos Condit		55.2%
44.8%
-180
+164
-180
+165
Win
Loss		-0.46324-0.46185-0.59428
Niko Price
Michel Pereira		79.6%
20.4%
+165
-190
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45487-0.46185-1.58998
Brad Tavares
Omari Akhmedov		46.9%
53.1%
-147
+130
-145
+135
Win
Loss		-0.54844-0.54173-0.75749
Alexander Volkov
Ciryl Gane		42.6%
57.4%
+148
-160
+145
-160
Loss
Win		-0.50395-0.50878-0.55478
Ovince Saint Preux
Tanner Boser		59.7%
40.3%
+170
-193
+185
-200
Loss
Win		-0.44615-0.42286-0.90932
Timur Valiev
Raoni Barcelos		5.2%
94.8%
+177
-202
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.04828-1.04185-2.95440
Jai Herbert
Renato Moicano		15.9%
84.1%
+205
-230
+215
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38554-0.37138-0.17289
Julija Stoliarenko
Julia Avila		50.0%
50.0%
+285
-350
+305
-350
Loss
Win		-0.28815-0.27570-0.69315
Justin Jaynes
Charles Rosa		69.6%
30.4%
+145
-141
+145
-140
Loss
Win		-0.52924-0.53045-1.19023
Damir Hadzovic
Yancy Medeiros		46.5%
53.5%
-143
+125
-130
+125
Win
Loss		-0.56261-0.58016-0.76484
Chan Sung Jung
Dan Ige		63.9%
36.1%
+130
-145
+145
-150
Win
Loss		-0.85918-0.90421-0.44710
Davey Grant
Marlon Vera		16.3%
83.7%
+180
-209
+185
-210
Loss
Win		-0.42398-0.41737-0.17745
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.92228 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.94406 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.53170
0.39058
0.41237

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.