UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Alistair Overeem
Alexander Volkov		49.2%
50.8%
+150
-162
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49890-0.48102-0.67708
Frankie Edgar
Cory Sandhagen		41.2%
58.8%
+285
-350
+300
-335
Loss
Win		-0.28815-0.28113-0.53115
Clay Guida
Michael Johnson		38.6%
61.4%
+170
-183
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.01011-1.04185-0.95101
Justin Jaynes
Devonte Smith		73.9%
26.1%
+300
-355
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.27796-0.28030-1.34312
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor		49.6%
50.4%
+260
-305
+265
-300
Win
Loss		-1.31134-1.31841-0.70031
Jessica Eye
Joanne Calderwood		64.5%
35.5%
+105
-125
+110
-125
Loss
Win		-0.63023-0.61904-1.03550
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Ribas		35.5%
64.5%
+300
-355
+305
-340
Win
Loss		-1.41605-1.41820-1.03561
Matt Frevola
Arman Tsarukyan		28.0%
72.0%
+575
-710
+555
-700
Loss
Win		-0.15616-0.16083-0.32782
Antonio Carlos Junior
Brad Tavares		49.1%
50.9%
-125
+115
-125
+117
Loss
Win		-0.78592-0.79098-0.67472
Julianna Pena
Sara McMann		85.8%
14.2%
+100
-119
+110
-120
Win
Loss		-0.73562-0.76336-0.15258
Marcin Prachnio
Khalil Rountree Jr.		41.7%
58.3%
+330
-400
+370
-400
Win
Loss		-1.49063-1.56022-0.87373
Nik Lentz
Movsar Evloev		26.6%
73.4%
+525
-700
+555
-650
Loss
Win		-0.16793-0.16225-0.30946
Amir Albazi
Zhalgas Zhumagulov		92.1%
7.9%
-114
-105
-120
+105
Win
Loss		-0.67372-0.63885-0.08234
Warlley Alves
Mounir Lazzez		38.2%
61.8%
+223
-255
+240
-240
Win
Loss		-1.20001-1.22377-0.96260
Douglas Silva de Andrade
Lerone Murphy		24.3%
75.7%
+274
-317
+300
-320
Loss
Win		-0.30139-0.28377-0.27778
Omari Akhmedov
Tom Breese		56.5%
43.5%
+131
-145
+135
-130
Win
Loss		-0.86168-0.84513-0.57070
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.