UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Markus Perez
Dalcha Lungiambula		69.2%
30.8%
+149
-165
+155
-160
Loss
Win		-0.49774-0.49303-1.17710
Calvin Kattar
Max Holloway		39.0%
61.0%
+136
-155
+148
-160
Loss
Win		-0.52892-0.50395-0.49359
Matt Brown
Carlos Condit		60.2%
39.8%
+183
-200
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.42529-0.41146-0.92143
Alessio Di Chirico
Joaquin Buckley		44.7%
55.3%
+235
-275
+250
-250
Win
Loss		-1.24029-1.25278-0.80515
Punahele Soriano
Dusko Todorovic		26.8%
73.2%
+150
-170
+155
-160
Win
Loss		-0.94549-0.94358-1.31654
David Zawada
Ramazan Emeev		22.0%
78.0%
+270
-300
+260
-300
Loss
Win		-0.30775-0.31508-0.24868
Geoff Neal
Stephen Thompson		79.0%
21.0%
-108
-108
-105
-105
Loss
Win		-0.69315-0.69315-1.56117
Marlon Vera
Jose Aldo		23.1%
76.9%
+125
-138
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.56616-0.56308-0.26276
Rob Font
Marlon Moraes		24.4%
75.6%
+142
-160
+140
-150
Win
Loss		-0.91899-0.89568-1.41030
Greg Hardy
Marcin Tybura		59.1%
40.9%
-110
-105
-115
+100
Loss
Win		-0.70481-0.72865-0.89475
Alex Morono
Anthony Pettis		34.0%
66.0%
+170
-193
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.43979-0.44201-0.41620
Pannie Kianzad
Tony Ferguson		14.6%
85.4%
+125
-145
+130
-140
Win
Loss		-0.85261-0.85397-1.92497
Deron Winn
Antonio Arroyo		63.2%
36.8%
+161
-175
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98513-1.00171-0.45890
Gillian Robertson
Taila Santos		50.0%
50.0%
-125
+120
-115
+110
Loss
Win		-0.79962-0.75362-0.69315
Christos Giagos
Carlton Minus		61.4%
38.6%
-340
+285
-325
+310
Win
Loss		-0.27907-0.27391-0.48704
Brandon Moreno
Deiveson Figueiredo		26.2%
73.8%
+280
-330
+300
-310
Draw
Draw		-0.83986-0.84110-0.82204
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.