UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for September 6, 2025

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Paul Craig
Modestas Bukauskas 		29.1%
70.9%
+250
-300

Fights for Sep 5, 2025
Fights for Sep 7, 2025

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera		51.0%
49.0%
+120
-135
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.81706-0.80802-0.67383
Alexis Davis
Sabina Mazo		56.2%
43.8%
+190
-224
+190
-215
Win
Loss		-1.10024-1.09172-0.57695
Derrick Lewis
Curtis Blaydes		25.8%
74.2%
+340
-400
+365
-400
Win
Loss		-1.50851-1.55183-1.35666
Yana Kunitskaya
Ketlen Vieira		60.0%
40.0%
+250
-275
+250
-280
Win
Loss		-1.27165-1.27508-0.51081
Aleksei Oleinik
Chris Daukaus		71.0%
29.0%
+172
-200
+180
-195
Loss
Win		-0.43920-0.43197-1.23939
Andrei Arlovski
Tom Aspinall		37.1%
62.9%
+235
-265
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.34441-0.34011-0.46381
Danny Chavez
Jared Gordon		40.5%
59.5%
-120
+117
-120
+108
Loss
Win		-0.78100-0.75824-0.51845
John Castaneda
Eddie Wineland		42.5%
57.5%
-130
+110
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.61112-0.59012-0.85487
Gilbert Burns
Kamaru Usman		15.3%
84.7%
+250
-290
+250
-270
Loss
Win		-0.32515-0.33041-0.16629
Maycee Barber
Alexa Grasso		66.7%
33.3%
+101
-102
-110
-110
Loss
Win		-0.68575-0.69315-1.10018
Ian Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum		61.4%
38.6%
+165
-190
+177
-200
Loss
Win		-0.45487-0.43277-0.95189
Brian Kelleher
Ricky Simon		36.2%
63.8%
+210
-235
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.37834-0.36291-0.44892
Anthony Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira		29.2%
70.8%
+429
-500
+400
-460
Win
Loss		-1.68794-1.63066-1.23052
Polyana Viana
Mallory Martin		50.0%
50.0%
-109
-107
-110
+100
Win
Loss		-0.68872-0.67015-0.69315
Andre Ewell
Chris Gutierrez		16.7%
83.3%
+108
-128
+115
-124
Loss
Win		-0.61863-0.60989-0.18218
Alistair Overeem
Alexander Volkov		49.2%
50.8%
+150
-162
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49890-0.48102-0.67708
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.21643 
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.21869 
DRatings11-0 (1.000)0-0.59337
-0.37694
-0.37468

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.