UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+110
-128
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aljamain Sterling
Petr Yan		28.9%
71.1%
+105
-123
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.75647-0.78592-1.24244
Drew Dober
Islam Makhachev		40.3%
59.7%
+370
-450
+380
-440
Loss
Win		-0.23115-0.22768-0.51522
Thiago Santos
Aleksandar Rakic		32.9%
67.1%
+184
-190
+170
-170
Loss
Win		-0.43012-0.46262-0.39876
Kai Kara-France
Rogerio Bontorin		53.2%
46.8%
-130
+115
-124
+115
Win
Loss		-0.60042-0.60989-0.63156
Livinha Souza
Amanda Lemos		50.0%
50.0%
+207
-225
+200
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38560-0.39531-0.69315
Trevin Jones
Mario Bautista		28.0%
72.0%
+195
-228
+195
-210
Win
Loss		-1.11535-1.09808-1.27372
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Ciryl Gane		61.2%
38.8%
+203
-230
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38765-0.40084-0.94747
Nikita Krylov
Magomed Ankalaev		52.0%
48.0%
+260
-310
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31290-0.32768-0.73468
Montana De La Rosa
Mayra Bueno Silva		24.1%
75.9%
-114
+105
-115
+115
Draw
Draw		-0.69412-0.69558-0.84936
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera		51.0%
49.0%
+120
-135
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.81706-0.80802-0.67383
Alexis Davis
Sabina Mazo		56.2%
43.8%
+190
-224
+190
-215
Win
Loss		-1.10024-1.09172-0.57695
Derrick Lewis
Curtis Blaydes		25.8%
74.2%
+340
-400
+365
-400
Win
Loss		-1.50851-1.55183-1.35666
Yana Kunitskaya
Ketlen Vieira		60.0%
40.0%
+250
-275
+250
-280
Win
Loss		-1.27165-1.27508-0.51081
Aleksei Oleinik
Chris Daukaus		71.0%
29.0%
+172
-200
+180
-195
Loss
Win		-0.43920-0.43197-1.23939
Andrei Arlovski
Tom Aspinall		37.1%
62.9%
+235
-265
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.34441-0.34011-0.46381
Danny Chavez
Jared Gordon		40.5%
59.5%
-120
+117
-120
+108
Loss
Win		-0.78100-0.75824-0.51845
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.