UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marlon Moraes
Cory Sandhagen		68.6%
31.4%
+115
-131
+120
-140
Loss
Win		-0.59604-0.57201-1.15894
Marcin Tybura
Ben Rothwell		42.2%
57.8%
+129
-140
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.85174-0.81042-0.86190
Joaquin Buckley
Impa Kasanganay		50.0%
50.0%
+215
-245
+225
-240
Win
Loss		-1.19185-1.20094-0.69315
Giga Chikadze
Omar Morales		39.6%
60.4%
+165
-185
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-1.01027-1.01129-0.92715
Irene Aldana
Holly Holm		40.3%
59.7%
+110
-125
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.61676-0.60657-0.51619
Carlos Felipe
Yorgan De Castro		64.9%
35.1%
+195
-210
+200
-210
Win
Loss		-1.10630-1.11489-0.43305
Germaine de Randamie
Julianna Pena		61.2%
38.8%
-155
+145
-160
+150
Win
Loss		-0.51109-0.49809-0.49119
Dequan Townsend
Dusko Todorovic		1.4%
98.6%
+345
-410
+330
-370
Loss
Win		-0.23623-0.25188-0.01405
Court McGee
Carlos Condit		49.7%
50.3%
-135
+117
-135
+125
Loss
Win		-0.81378-0.83243-0.68802
Paulo Costa
Israel Adesanya		31.0%
69.0%
+165
-190
+170
-177
Loss
Win		-0.44799-0.45522-0.37073
Jan Blachowicz
Dominick Reyes		28.3%
71.7%
+210
-240
+205
-235
Win
Loss		-1.17652-1.16095-1.26206
Diego Sanchez
Jake Matthews		35.0%
65.0%
+535
-700
+555
-700
Loss
Win		-0.15227-0.14946-0.43058
Tyron Woodley
Colby Covington		42.4%
57.6%
+290
-325
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.28216-0.27264-0.55151
Donald Cerrone
Niko Price		46.0%
54.0%
+120
-135
+130
-135
Draw
Draw		-0.70039-0.70300-0.69638
Gerald Meerschaert
Khamzat Chimaev		21.6%
78.4%
+415
-500
+435
-500
Loss
Win		-0.19896-0.19454-0.24352
Randa Markos
Mackenzie Dern		57.5%
42.5%
+165
-190
+165
-170
Loss
Win		-0.44799-0.46818-0.85557
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.