UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 21, 2026

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Punahele Soriano
Ramiz Brahimaj 		76.1%
23.9%
+110
-128
+120
-140
Fights for Feb 20, 2026
Fights for Feb 22, 2026

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
John Castaneda
Eddie Wineland		42.5%
57.5%
-130
+110
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.61112-0.59012-0.85487
Gilbert Burns
Kamaru Usman		15.3%
84.7%
+250
-290
+250
-270
Loss
Win		-0.32515-0.33041-0.16629
Maycee Barber
Alexa Grasso		66.7%
33.3%
+101
-102
-110
-110
Loss
Win		-0.68575-0.69315-1.10018
Ian Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum		61.4%
38.6%
+165
-190
+177
-200
Loss
Win		-0.45487-0.43277-0.95189
Brian Kelleher
Ricky Simon		36.2%
63.8%
+210
-235
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.37834-0.36291-0.44892
Anthony Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira		29.2%
70.8%
+429
-500
+400
-460
Win
Loss		-1.68794-1.63066-1.23052
Polyana Viana
Mallory Martin		50.0%
50.0%
-109
-107
-110
+100
Win
Loss		-0.68872-0.67015-0.69315
Andre Ewell
Chris Gutierrez		16.7%
83.3%
+108
-128
+115
-124
Loss
Win		-0.61863-0.60989-0.18218
Alistair Overeem
Alexander Volkov		49.2%
50.8%
+150
-162
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49890-0.48102-0.67708
Frankie Edgar
Cory Sandhagen		41.2%
58.8%
+285
-350
+300
-335
Loss
Win		-0.28815-0.28113-0.53115
Clay Guida
Michael Johnson		38.6%
61.4%
+170
-183
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.01011-1.04185-0.95101
Justin Jaynes
Devonte Smith		73.9%
26.1%
+300
-355
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.27796-0.28030-1.34312
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor		49.6%
50.4%
+260
-305
+265
-300
Win
Loss		-1.31134-1.31841-0.70031
Jessica Eye
Joanne Calderwood		64.5%
35.5%
+105
-125
+110
-125
Loss
Win		-0.63023-0.61904-1.03550
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Ribas		35.5%
64.5%
+300
-355
+305
-340
Win
Loss		-1.41605-1.41820-1.03561
Matt Frevola
Arman Tsarukyan		28.0%
72.0%
+575
-710
+555
-700
Loss
Win		-0.15616-0.16083-0.32782
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.