UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		68.2%
31.8%
+165
-190
+170
-190
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		17.0%
83.0%
-190
+165
-190
+170
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		22.8%
77.2%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		22.9%
77.1%
-165
+145
-170
+150
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		50.0%
50.0%
-650
+475
-650
+475
Court McGee
Tim Means 		36.9%
63.1%
+195
-230
+190
-220
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 6, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bobby Green
Lando Vannata		74.0%
26.0%
+125
-130
+130
-140
Win
Loss		-0.82187-0.85397-0.30073
Frankie Saenz
Jonathan Martinez		50.6%
49.4%
+215
-250
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35893-0.36141-0.70617
Darren Till
Robert Whittaker		35.0%
65.0%
+150
-161
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49687-0.47963-0.43104
Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Gustafsson		55.4%
44.6%
+245
-274
+260
-270
Win
Loss		-1.27791-1.29455-0.58985
Paul Craig
Gadzhimurad Antigulov		54.4%
45.6%
-150
+135
-145
+135
Win
Loss		-0.53234-0.53931-0.60965
Mike Grundy
Movsar Evloev		44.0%
56.0%
+150
-167
+160
-170
Loss
Win		-0.48983-0.47400-0.57923
Raphael Pessoa
Tanner Boser		47.2%
52.8%
+220
-230
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.36782-0.35539-0.63824
Bethe Correia
Pannie Kianzad		53.6%
46.4%
+145
-145
+140
-155
Loss
Win		-0.52452-0.51820-0.76854
Joseph Benavidez
Deiveson Figueiredo		45.2%
54.8%
+200
-220
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38995-0.38205-0.60212
Jack Hermansson
Kelvin Gastelum		46.8%
53.2%
-110
+100
-105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.66963-0.68102-0.75845
Nad Narimani
Grant Dawson		14.2%
85.8%
+255
-300
+270
-295
Loss
Win		-0.30903-0.30342-0.15357
Brett Johns
Montel Jackson		49.1%
50.9%
+230
-250
+235
-260
Win
Loss		-1.22292-1.24431-0.71125
Davi Ramos
Arman Tsarukyan		12.5%
87.5%
+220
-245
+210
-230
Loss
Win		-0.35836-0.37513-0.13319
Dan Ige
Calvin Kattar		41.3%
58.7%
+230
-235
+220
-245
Loss
Win		-0.35778-0.35836-0.53355
Ryan Benoit
Tim Elliott		57.8%
42.2%
+143
-150
+143
-160
Loss
Win		-0.52047-0.50761-0.86218
Jimmie Rivera
Cody Stamann		65.9%
34.1%
-114
-105
-105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.67285-0.68102-0.41770
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.