Derby County at Luton Town

Updated

Derby County

33.5%28.8%37.8%
Derby County WinDrawLuton Town Win
1.08Projected Goals 1.16
0Final Score 1

Luton Town

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
L 2-1 vs Millwall+185
L 1-4 at Middlesbrough+540
W 1-3 vs Hull City+130
L 0-2 at Huddersfield+265
T 2-2 vs Birmingham City+140
Luton Town
Money Line
W 2-1 at Stoke City+280
W 0-2 vs West Bromwich Albion+230
L 0-3 at Birmingham City+150
W 1-2 vs Barnsley-175
W 1-0 at Swansea City+270

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:1.9%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.1%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+330+386+360+305+347+305+386+392.3
Luton Town-120-111-115-114-122-114-111-105.2
Draw+245+234+225+215+248+215+248+251.9
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+350---+330+370+370+392.3
Luton Town-120----145-125-125-105.2
Draw+250---+230+250+250+251.9

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 50.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Luton Town: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 40.0%
Luton Town: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Luton Town: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +370 to +360
Luton Town ML moved from -114 to -122

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 50.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Luton Town: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 50.0%
Luton Town: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Luton Town: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +385 to +370
Luton Town ML moved from -120 to -130

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.7%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2½+102o2-116o2-120o2-113-o2-113o2-113o2-109
Underu2½-122u2+101u2+100u2-107-u2-107u2+101u2+109
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2-109
Under-----u2+109

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes45.4%
 
No54.6%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 010.62%
Exactly 226.70%
Exactly 411.19%
Exactly 61.88%
Exactly 80.17%
 
Exactly 123.81%
Exactly 319.96%
Exactly 55.02%
Exactly 70.60%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 034.01%
Exactly 136.68%
Exactly 219.78%
Exactly 37.11%
Exactly 41.92%
Exactly 50.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Luton Town
Exactly 031.22%
Exactly 136.34%
Exactly 221.16%
Exactly 38.21%
Exactly 42.39%
Exactly 50.56%
Exactly 60.11%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 035.40%
Exactly 219.09%
Exactly 41.72%
 
Exactly 136.76%
Exactly 36.61%
Exactly 50.36%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 060.69%
Exactly 130.31%
Exactly 27.57%
Exactly 31.26%
Exactly 40.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Luton Town
Exactly 058.33%
Exactly 131.44%
Exactly 28.47%
Exactly 31.52%
Exactly 40.21%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals13.08%
Wins by 3+ goals3.88%
Wins by 4+ goals0.88%
Wins by 5+ goals0.13%
Luton Town
Wins by 2+ goals15.81%
Wins by 3+ goals5.09%
Wins by 4+ goals1.30%
Wins by 5+ goals0.27%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Luton Town
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal20.31%
Wins by 2 goals9.20%
Wins by 3 goals3.00%
Wins by 4 goals0.75%
Wins by 5 goals0.13%
Luton Town
Wins by 1 goal21.92%
Wins by 2 goals10.72%
Wins by 3 goals3.79%
Wins by 4 goals1.04%
Wins by 5 goals0.23%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.589.38%10.62%
1.565.57%34.43%
2.538.87%61.13%
3.518.91%81.09%
4.57.72%92.28%
5.52.70%97.30%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.565.99%34.01%
1.529.31%70.69%
2.59.53%90.47%
3.52.42%97.58%

Total Goals Luton Town Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.78%31.22%
1.532.44%67.56%
2.511.29%88.71%
3.53.08%96.92%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.60%35.40%
1.527.84%72.16%
2.58.75%91.25%
3.52.14%97.86%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Luton Town
Score012345
0
10.62%
12.36%
7.19%
2.79%
0.81%
0.19%
1
11.45%
13.33%
7.76%
3.01%
0.88%
0.20%
2
6.17%
7.19%
4.18%
1.62%
0.47%
0.11%
3
2.22%
2.58%
1.50%
0.58%
0.17%
0.04%
4
0.60%
0.70%
0.41%
0.16%
0.05%
0.01%
5
0.13%
0.15%
0.09%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Derby County
1-011.45%
2-06.17%
2-17.19%
3-02.22%
3-12.58%
3-21.50%
4-00.60%
4-10.70%
4-20.41%
4-30.16%
5-00.13%
5-10.15%
Draw
0-010.62%
1-113.33%
2-24.18%
3-30.58%
Luton Town
0-112.36%
0-27.19%
1-27.76%
0-32.79%
1-33.01%
2-31.62%
0-40.81%
1-40.88%
2-40.47%
3-40.17%
0-50.19%
1-50.20%
2-50.11%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Luton Town
Score01234
0
35.40%
19.08%
5.14%
0.92%
0.12%
1
17.68%
9.53%
2.57%
0.46%
0.06%
2
4.41%
2.38%
0.64%
0.12%
0.02%
3
0.73%
0.40%
0.11%
0.02%
0.00%
Derby County
1-017.68%
2-04.41%
2-12.38%
3-00.73%
3-10.40%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-035.40%
1-19.53%
2-20.64%
Luton Town
0-119.08%
0-25.14%
1-22.57%
0-30.92%
1-30.46%
2-30.12%
0-40.12%
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