Derby County at Middlesbrough

Updated

Derby County

32.4%28.9%38.7%
Derby County WinDrawMiddlesbrough Win
1.01Projected Goals 1.20
1Final Score 4

Middlesbrough

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 1-3 vs Hull City+130
L 0-2 at Huddersfield+265
T 2-2 vs Birmingham City+140
L 1-2 at Nottingham Forest+355
T 2-2 at Reading+190
Middlesbrough
Money Line
T 2-2 at Queens Park Rangers+180
W 0-1 vs Coventry City-110
L 0-1 at Blackburn+175
W 1-2 vs Reading-330
W 0-2 vs Nottingham Forest-110

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.0%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+370+511+475+410+478+410+511+529.6
Middlesbrough-130-152-160-154-162-154-152-140.7
Draw+250+279+265+260+272+260+279+289.7
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+500---+470+540+540+529.6
Middlesbrough-160----190-170-170-140.7
Draw+270---+240+275+275+289.7

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 50.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +430 to +410
Middlesbrough ML moved from -162 to -170

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 70.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 50.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 20.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Derby County ML
No Steam Moves On Middlesbrough ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:0.2%
 Open Line5DimesBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-118o2½+131o2¼+100o2¼-106-o2¼-106o2¼+100o2½+133
Underu2¼-102u2½-146u2¼-120u2¼-114-u2¼-114u2½-146u2½-133
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2½+133
Under-----u2½-133

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes44.3%
 
No55.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 011.01%
Exactly 226.80%
Exactly 410.87%
Exactly 61.76%
Exactly 80.15%
 
Exactly 124.29%
Exactly 319.71%
Exactly 54.80%
Exactly 70.56%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 036.63%
Exactly 136.79%
Exactly 218.47%
Exactly 36.18%
Exactly 41.55%
Exactly 50.31%
Exact Goals Scored - Middlesbrough
Exactly 030.05%
Exactly 136.13%
Exactly 221.72%
Exactly 38.70%
Exactly 42.62%
Exactly 50.63%
Exactly 60.13%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 036.00%
Exactly 218.79%
Exactly 41.63%
 
Exactly 136.78%
Exactly 36.40%
Exactly 50.33%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 062.81%
Exactly 129.21%
Exactly 26.79%
Exactly 31.05%
Exactly 40.12%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Middlesbrough
Exactly 057.31%
Exactly 131.90%
Exactly 28.88%
Exactly 31.65%
Exactly 40.23%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals11.31%
Wins by 3+ goals3.16%
Wins by 4+ goals0.67%
Middlesbrough
Wins by 2+ goals17.49%
Wins by 3+ goals5.81%
Wins by 4+ goals1.54%
Wins by 5+ goals0.32%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Middlesbrough
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal19.21%
Wins by 2 goals8.15%
Wins by 3 goals2.49%
Wins by 4 goals0.58%
Middlesbrough
Wins by 1 goal23.00%
Wins by 2 goals11.68%
Wins by 3 goals4.28%
Wins by 4 goals1.21%
Wins by 5 goals0.28%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.588.99%11.01%
1.564.70%35.30%
2.537.91%62.09%
3.518.19%81.81%
4.57.32%92.68%
5.52.52%97.48%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.563.37%36.63%
1.526.58%73.42%
2.58.11%91.89%
3.51.93%98.07%

Total Goals Middlesbrough Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.95%30.05%
1.533.82%66.18%
2.512.10%87.90%
3.53.40%96.60%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.564.00%36.00%
1.527.22%72.78%
2.58.43%91.57%
3.52.03%97.97%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Middlesbrough
Score012345
0
11.01%
13.23%
7.96%
3.19%
0.96%
0.23%
1
11.05%
13.29%
7.99%
3.20%
0.96%
0.23%
2
5.55%
6.67%
4.01%
1.61%
0.48%
0.12%
3
1.86%
2.23%
1.34%
0.54%
0.16%
0.04%
4
0.47%
0.56%
0.34%
0.14%
0.04%
0.01%
Derby County
1-011.05%
2-05.55%
2-16.67%
3-01.86%
3-12.23%
3-21.34%
4-00.47%
4-10.56%
4-20.34%
4-30.14%
Draw
0-011.01%
1-113.29%
2-24.01%
3-30.54%
Middlesbrough
0-113.23%
0-27.96%
1-27.99%
0-33.19%
1-33.20%
2-31.61%
0-40.96%
1-40.96%
2-40.48%
3-40.16%
0-50.23%
1-50.23%
2-50.12%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Middlesbrough
Score01234
0
36.00%
20.04%
5.58%
1.04%
0.14%
1
16.74%
9.32%
2.59%
0.48%
0.07%
2
3.89%
2.17%
0.60%
0.11%
0.02%
3
0.60%
0.34%
0.09%
0.02%
0.00%
Derby County
1-016.74%
2-03.89%
2-12.17%
3-00.60%
3-10.34%
Draw
0-036.00%
1-19.32%
2-20.60%
Middlesbrough
0-120.04%
0-25.58%
1-22.59%
0-31.04%
1-30.48%
2-30.11%
0-40.14%
Middlesbrough at Queens Park Rangers
Luton Town at Birmingham City