English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bournemouth
Everton		13.7%
66.8%		19.5%
+444
-157
+455
-170
0
1		-0.52295-0.51106-0.40360
Newcastle United
Chelsea		12.2%
70.1%		17.7%
+145
+182
+140
+195
1
1		-1.36059-1.34381-1.73404
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		26.9%
47.4%		25.8%
+293
-108
+275
-115
1
2		-0.67283-0.67188-0.74705
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		24.3%
50.0%		25.7%
+920
-330
+825
-320
0
5		-0.28692-0.29930-0.69295
Chelsea
Manchester United		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+540
-180
+470
-180
1
4		-0.45820-0.48639-0.75315
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		75.5%
8.7%		15.8%
-111
+290
-120
+285
1
1		-1.44630-1.45895-1.84491
Leicester City
Newcastle United		57.1%
19.8%		23.2%
+846
-310
+800
-320
0
0		-1.81979-1.81088-1.46300
Chelsea
Manchester City		16.4%
63.2%		20.4%
+500
-166
+450
-165
0
1		-0.49507-0.51547-0.45849
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.0%
33.3%		27.7%
+1200
-445
+1100
-470
1
3		-0.22396-0.24049-1.10012
Leeds United
West Ham United		26.1%
48.5%		25.4%
+171
+168
+163
+160
1
3		-1.00553-0.99358-0.72340
Aston Villa
Liverpool		12.2%
70.3%		17.5%
+566
-200
+540
-205
1
1		-1.61319-1.60470-1.74097
Everton
Wolverhampton		35.2%
36.5%		28.3%
+133
+219
+130
+216
1
1		-1.31520-1.25748-1.26196
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+228
+146
+206
+135
2
2		-1.20611-1.26915-1.21733
Manchester United
Bournemouth		74.7%
9.3%		16.0%
-235
+653
-235
+585
1
0		-0.37183-0.39356-0.29164
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+339
-122
+311
-120
1
4		-0.61398-0.63486-1.02026
Liverpool
Leicester City		46.8%
27.2%		26.0%
-145
+388
-155
+380
3
0		-0.55769-0.54803-0.75886
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.