English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Fulham		49.8%
23.7%		26.4%
+204
+164
+200
+152
1
1		-1.18319-1.20274-1.33112
West Ham United
Tottenham		21.9%
55.1%		22.9%
+370
-114
+340
-120
0
2		-0.64903-0.65036-0.59553
Leicester City
Manchester United		24.1%
51.4%		24.5%
+501
-173
+470
-180
0
3		-0.47351-0.48639-0.66614
Liverpool
Newcastle United		70.6%
11.5%		17.9%
+186
+159
+188
+150
2
0		-1.07125-1.09020-0.34832
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion		24.1%
49.1%		26.7%
+520
-175
+515
-185
1
0		-1.84421-1.86240-1.42093
Southampton
Chelsea		18.4%
60.8%		20.8%
+700
-215
+700
-232
1
0		-2.09956-2.12678-1.69527
Leeds United
Everton		22.3%
53.8%		23.8%
+183
+179
+185
+170
0
1		-1.04535-1.02179-0.61934
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		15.7%
62.4%		21.9%
+386
-119
+375
-120
1
0		-1.60028-1.59974-1.85342
Arsenal
Aston Villa		44.6%
29.4%		25.9%
-109
+345
-122
+355
4
2		-0.66738-0.64177-0.80694
Manchester City
Arsenal		60.5%
17.6%		21.9%
+129
+234
+127
+225
3
1		-0.84774-0.86123-0.50269
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+475
-157
+475
-175
0
2		-0.51273-0.49654-0.44012
Aston Villa
Manchester City		7.9%
78.2%		13.9%
+865
-275
+946
-325
1
3		-0.32098-0.30952-0.24568
Manchester United
Leeds United		63.9%
15.7%		20.4%
-102
+294
-110
+275
2
0		-0.70162-0.69888-0.44741
Newcastle United
Bournemouth		41.3%
30.7%		28.0%
-161
+535
-175
+510
1
1		-1.41034-1.45423-1.27361
Tottenham
Leicester City		32.6%
40.9%		26.5%
+110
+260
+103
+258
1
4		-1.29997-1.31669-0.89370
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		32.0%
38.5%		29.5%
-124
+392
-125
+365
1
1		-1.35480-1.35833-1.22159
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.