English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Crystal Palace		44.6%
28.2%		27.2%
+215
+167
+205
+155
3
2		-1.14709-1.15195-0.80829
Burnley
Arsenal		16.2%
61.4%		22.4%
+1555
-485
+1500
-515
1
3		-0.20663-0.21834-0.48770
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		43.9%
29.6%		26.5%
+130
+214
+125
+210
1
2		-1.16395-1.17157-1.21686
Chelsea
Tottenham		37.1%
36.4%		26.5%
+201
+135
+205
+130
4
1		-1.12958-1.15255-0.99266
Arsenal
Newcastle United		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
+169
+182
+173
+170
0
1		-1.05702-1.03665-1.54773
Wolverhampton
Sheffield United		44.1%
27.4%		28.6%
-105
+325
-115
+315
1
2		-1.46102-1.47172-1.29583
Bournemouth
Manchester City		3.9%
86.4%		9.7%
+2775
-950
+2650
-1150
1
6		-0.11789-0.11910-0.14676
Brighton and Hove Albion
Everton		22.2%
53.3%		24.5%
+150
+210
+144
+190
1
1		-1.33025-1.30265-1.40768
Crystal Palace
Burnley		33.2%
36.4%		30.4%
+165
+240
+135
+240
2
0		-0.95350-0.89578-1.10358
Manchester United
Fulham		71.5%
10.9%		17.6%
+136
+220
+135
+210
1
0		-0.86515-0.88768-0.33543
Manchester City
Manchester United		48.0%
26.5%		25.4%
-143
+450
-160
+450
3
0		-0.52779-0.52579-0.73293
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion		24.1%
49.1%		26.7%
+459
-163
+450
-170
1
1		-1.54029-1.50171-1.31920
Everton
West Ham United		36.9%
35.7%		27.4%
+260
+117
+269
+105
1
0		-1.28975-1.34155-0.99804
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		22.2%
52.9%		24.9%
-108
+326
-122
+330
2
2		-1.36940-1.39877-1.39074
Sheffield United
Arsenal		15.2%
62.6%		22.2%
+1900
-729
+1850
-800
0
5		-0.15837-0.16605-0.46874
Burnley
Bournemouth		41.4%
29.9%		28.7%
+245
+118
+235
+112
1
2		-0.80162-0.79829-1.20785
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks53-0-2 (0.800)0-0.94293 
Sportsbooks53-0-2 (0.800)0-0.94284 
DRatings53-0-2 (0.800)0-0.95356
-0.01063
-0.01072

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.