English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 22, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Everton		38.6%
36.0%		25.4%
+120
+260
+124
+250
1
2		-1.29485-1.27454-1.02065
Leicester City
Aston Villa		44.8%
31.3%		23.9%
+235
+125
+245
+120
1
2		-0.84735-0.83048-1.16098
Norwich City
Tottenham		16.9%
65.6%		17.5%
+674
-215
+650
-215
0
3		-0.40396-0.42417-0.42185
Crystal Palace
Manchester United		17.8%
63.5%		18.7%
+565
-190
+550
-190
0
1		-0.45268-0.46622-0.45490
Manchester City
Watford		76.0%
10.0%		13.9%
-475
+1254
-500
+1300
3
1		-0.22379-0.22127-0.27407
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		53.3%
24.2%		22.5%
-275
+828
-270
+800
1
0		-0.33949-0.34592-0.62841
Brighton and Hove Albion
Southampton		30.1%
45.4%		24.5%
+198
+165
+186
+170
1
1		-1.18172-1.18420-1.40842
Burnley
Newcastle United		34.3%
38.9%		26.8%
+205
+143
+199
+140
0
1		-0.92085-0.91807-0.94307
Chelsea
West Ham United		47.5%
29.5%		23.0%
-130
+390
-130
+380
2
3		-1.62460-1.61294-1.22051
Arsenal
Manchester United		27.5%
49.3%		23.2%
+277
+105
+250
+110
2
3		-0.73393-0.77936-0.70680
Liverpool
Everton		51.2%
26.3%		22.5%
-275
+815
-295
+850
4
1		-0.33792-0.33187-0.66957
Manchester City
Aston Villa		64.8%
18.3%		16.9%
-215
+625
-230
+650
2
1		-0.41033-0.40103-0.43351
Leicester City
Southampton		44.2%
31.7%		24.1%
+200
+140
+200
+132
2
2		-1.29814-1.31197-1.42499
Burnley
Wolverhampton		26.9%
47.8%		25.3%
+375
-103
+360
-115
0
0		-1.24608-1.25846-1.37547
Brighton and Hove Albion
West Ham United		29.7%
45.5%		24.8%
+365
-101
+335
-110
1
1		-1.25600-1.28518-1.39529
Chelsea
Watford		64.0%
17.9%		18.1%
-295
+916
-325
+975
2
1		-0.31515-0.30865-0.44627
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.