English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley		30.9%
41.4%		27.7%
+124
+271
+125
+266
1
1		-0.72464-0.72245-0.70830
Arsenal
Aston Villa		41.0%
32.8%		26.2%
+146
+198
+155
+202
0
1		-0.79361-0.78130-1.11508
Chelsea
Tottenham		37.6%
36.5%		25.9%
+100
+306
+105
+300
1
0		-0.40054-0.41377-0.45482
West Ham United
Aston Villa		32.8%
41.8%		25.4%
+220
+143
+210
+135
3
1		-0.84021-0.84121-0.54099
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		14.7%
73.2%		12.1%
+550
-195
+525
-205
1
0		-1.66707-1.64880-1.31528
Everton
Leeds United		42.9%
31.3%		25.8%
+180
+158
+170
+155
2
1		-0.73491-0.72214-0.37557
Leicester City
Fulham		61.4%
20.3%		18.3%
+108
+290
+107
+290
2
0		-0.42745-0.42576-0.22740
Manchester City
Burnley		64.7%
18.6%		16.7%
-490
+1600
-525
+1700
2
0		-0.06843-0.06405-0.20604
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		33.5%
37.6%		28.8%
+155
+200
+155
+200
2
1		-0.61517-0.61517-0.47209
Southampton
Manchester United		24.6%
55.6%		19.9%
+582
-209
+600
-225
0
9		-0.19621-0.18760-0.58744
Arsenal
Wolverhampton		37.0%
34.6%		28.5%
+116
+265
+118
+255
1
2		-0.98948-0.96640-1.06227
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		52.0%
25.9%		22.1%
+130
+230
+131
+210
0
1		-0.88984-0.85099-1.34996
Liverpool
West Ham United		62.5%
20.6%		16.9%
+108
+250
+106
+250
3
1		-0.46643-0.46283-0.23089
Leeds United
Leicester City		24.1%
54.7%		21.2%
+325
-120
+305
-122
3
1		-1.19942-1.17115-0.79279
Burnley
Chelsea		21.5%
60.5%		18.0%
+950
-303
+925
-330
0
2		-0.11927-0.11967-0.50297
Aston Villa
Southampton		31.7%
43.7%		24.6%
+122
+222
+120
+220
1
0		-0.52440-0.52324-0.57432
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.