English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Arsenal		42.8%
31.3%		26.0%
+115
+260
+125
+260
0
0		-0.72600-0.72051-0.76869
Sheffield United
Manchester City		12.8%
75.6%		11.7%
+1700
-525
+1850
-650
0
1		-0.06405-0.05748-0.28004
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		40.1%
31.4%		28.5%
+162
+205
+165
+190
0
1		-0.77202-0.73923-1.15779
Newcastle United
Everton		26.2%
51.7%		22.2%
+570
-180
+540
-170
2
0		-1.66908-1.61536-0.72672
Liverpool
Tottenham		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+110
+259
-102
+270
3
1		-0.46056-0.42869-0.70401
Leicester City
Everton		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+140
+220
+135
+220
1
1		-0.70346-0.70502-0.69503
Sheffield United
Manchester United		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+1000
-360
+1000
-370
2
1		-2.26269-2.26789-1.60023
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+301
+105
+300
+100
0
0		-0.74839-0.75204-0.77845
Aston Villa
Burnley		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
-115
+341
-115
+345
2
3		-1.21157-1.21794-0.81844
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+495
-150
+470
-160
0
0		-0.88323-0.87830-0.77779
Arsenal
Southampton		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+110
+260
+110
+245
3
1		-0.45953-0.47543-0.68296
Manchester City
West Bromwich Albion		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
-650
+2000
-700
+1800
5
0		-0.05349-0.05841-0.14971
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+120
+250
+115
+250
3
2		-0.48770-0.47889-0.62411
Leeds United
Newcastle United		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
-115
+300
-115
+290
2
1		-0.38349-0.39162-0.67184
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+528
-195
+532
-190
0
2		-0.21583-0.21633-0.42170
Burnley
Liverpool		50.0%
50.0%		0.0%
+918
-278
+850
-315
1
0		-2.13851-2.10546-1.47513
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.