English Premier League Predictions

Updated

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Games for May 2, 2021
Games for Jan 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Liverpool		28.6%
45.3%		26.1%
+725
-272
+750
-300
2
2		-1.75325-1.78994-1.34239
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		50.4%
23.8%		25.8%
-125
+385
-125
+350
1
1		-1.33983-1.36524-1.35425
Leicester City
Aston Villa		47.1%
27.6%		25.2%
+785
-290
+800
-325
1
2		-0.32630-0.31258-1.28558
Everton
Bournemouth		58.8%
18.6%		22.6%
+425
-142
+380
-140
0
1		-0.56307-0.58284-1.67943
Chelsea
Crystal Palace		58.4%
18.8%		22.8%
-101
+265
+100
+260
1
1		-1.40291-1.38490-1.47845
West Ham United
Manchester City		8.3%
77.2%		14.5%
+975
-405
+975
-390
1
4		-0.25494-0.25665-0.25921
Newcastle United
Tottenham		14.6%
66.0%		19.5%
-127
+290
-115
+290
2
1		-0.61349-0.63864-1.92696
Newcastle United
Manchester United		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+157
+175
+150
+180
2
0		-0.97397-0.95670-2.31851
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		26.9%
47.4%		25.8%
+313
-114
+315
-116
2
2		-1.39175-1.37531-1.35658
Liverpool
West Ham United		61.0%
17.5%		21.5%
-250
+645
-280
+700
5
0		-0.36798-0.34500-0.49477
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		22.8%
53.0%		24.2%
+380
-150
+360
-158
2
2		-1.53414-1.57219-1.42064
Southampton
Crystal Palace		39.4%
32.8%		27.8%
+540
-185
+550
-185
1
2		-0.45936-0.46447-1.11615
Manchester City
Leicester City		58.5%
19.0%		22.5%
-357
+925
-350
+925
2
0		-0.27903-0.28242-0.53602
Leicester City
Liverpool		20.7%
55.8%		23.4%
+2500
-1250
+2740
-1550
1
3		-0.11215-0.10296-0.58311
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		54.5%
21.5%		23.9%
-120
+328
-120
+330
0
2		-1.48886-1.50233-1.53656
Fulham
Chelsea		9.7%
74.2%		16.1%
+560
-212
+550
-210
2
1		-1.91759-1.91359-2.33531
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.75325 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.78994 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.34239
0.41086
0.44755

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.