Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated 2 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/10/2024 07:45 PM	Napoli Inter	23.4% 52.5%	24.1%	+370 -120 +360 -125	1 1	-1.35615-1.35062	-1.42483
11/10/2024 02:00 PM	Hellas Verona Fiorentina	29.2% 43.1%	27.6%	+580 -195 +640 -225	1 3	-0.43913-0.41158	-0.84060
11/10/2024 02:00 PM	Bologna Roma	12.4% 71.2%	16.4%	+275 +117 +260 +125	3 2	-1.35182-1.31983	-2.08361
11/10/2024 11:30 AM	Udinese Atalanta	10.8% 73.2%	16.0%	+725 -220 +750 -279	1 2	-0.39595-0.35499	-0.31157
11/09/2024 07:45 PM	Torino Juventus	6.4% 81.4%	12.2%	+725 -175 +665 -175	0 2	-0.47946-0.48866	-0.20557
11/09/2024 05:00 PM	Milan Cagliari	67.7% 13.8%	18.5%	-153 +445 -160 +430	3 3	-1.46106-1.44847	-1.68686
11/04/2024 07:45 PM	Cagliari Lazio	11.2% 72.3%	16.5%	+590 -183 +585 -205	1 2	-0.45982-0.44674	-0.32432
11/03/2024 05:00 PM	Roma Hellas Verona	53.3% 23.2%	23.5%	-122 +402 -125 +380	2 3	-1.63594-1.60944	-1.46236
11/03/2024 02:00 PM	Fiorentina Torino	45.8% 28.5%	25.7%	+121 +280 +115 +285	1 0	-0.82075-0.80307	-0.78080
11/03/2024 11:30 AM	Atalanta Napoli	38.7% 35.4%	25.9%	+248 +130 +260 +117	3 0	-1.27189-1.30900	-0.95060
11/02/2024 05:00 PM	Juventus Udinese	69.8% 11.4%	18.8%	+104 +325 +105 +360	2 0	-0.74106-0.73064	-0.36010
10/31/2024 07:45 PM	Torino Roma	11.6% 72.6%	15.8%	+380 -116 +390 -120	0 1	-0.64084-0.62937	-0.32010
10/31/2024 05:30 PM	Fiorentina Genoa	44.2% 29.5%	26.4%	-143 +448 -145 +425	1 0	-0.56045-0.56572	-0.81701
10/29/2024 07:45 PM	Napoli Milan	30.4% 43.2%	26.4%	+168 +187 +175 +180	2 0	-1.01013-1.03967	-1.19030
10/29/2024 05:30 PM	Bologna Cagliari	34.2% 39.8%	26.0%	+134 +237 +130 +235	2 0	-0.86819-0.87582	-1.07365
10/27/2024 07:45 PM	Roma Fiorentina	49.8% 25.9%	24.3%	+190 +160 +194 +155	1 5	-0.98746-0.97992	-1.35089

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)	26.0	5.8	6.2	84.1	55.9%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)	24.7	5.0	8.3	82.4	40.1%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)	22.0	6.4	9.6	75.7	4.0%	97.5%	2.5%	0.0%
4	Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)	19.5	8.8	9.7	68.2	0.0%	80.7%	18.1%	0.0%
5	Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)	17.8	10.8	9.4	62.7	0.0%	18.4%	74.2%	0.0%
6	Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)	15.6	12.9	9.5	56.3	0.0%	1.9%	46.3%	0.0%
7	Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)	14.2	14.4	9.4	52.1	0.0%	0.3%	10.3%	0.0%
8	Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)	13.4	12.8	11.7	52.1	0.0%	0.7%	12.8%	0.1%
10	Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)	12.6	15.0	10.4	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	0.8%
11	Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)	13.1	16.2	8.7	48.0	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	0.6%
12	Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)	12.8	13.6	11.7	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	7.7%	0.5%
13	Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)	11.5	14.0	12.5	47.1	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	1.0%
14	Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)	11.0	16.6	10.5	43.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.7%
15	Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)	11.9	19.4	6.7	42.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	15.3%
16	Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)	11.1	18.1	8.8	42.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	15.2%
17	Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)	9.8	17.8	10.4	39.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.