MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 3, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jose Quintana
Tobias Myers
42.9%
57.1%
+112
-122
+111
-118
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-194
-1½+175
4.01
4.75
8.76
o7½-105
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½-105
Games for Oct 2, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels
50.0%
50.0%
-107
-103
-106
+104

+1½-206
-1½+195
8
6
-0.68389-0.66920-0.69377
Seattle Mariners
Milwaukee Brewers
44.1%
55.9%
+115
-125
+117
-125
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-191
-1½+180
5
6
-0.60825-0.60404-0.58102
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
61.3%
38.7%
-133
+122
-134
+127
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+120
+1½-128
2
10
-0.81855-0.83287-0.94817
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
54.1%
45.9%
+165
-180
+175
-177
+1½-129
-1½+110
+1½-115
-1½+105
1
2
-0.46185-0.45050-0.77912
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
35.4%
64.6%
+258
-295
+270
-290
+1½+130
-1½-150
+1½+133
-1½-150
5
6
-0.31774-0.31004-0.43632
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
53.9%
46.1%
-197
+179
-185
+182
-1½-126
+1½+110
-1½-123
+1½+110
4
0
-0.43201-0.43586-0.61884
New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds
46.4%
53.6%
+120
-130
+124
-126
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+163
3
2
-0.80802-0.81042-0.76824
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
44.1%
55.9%
+112
-122
+111
-116
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-197
-1½+175
2
3
-0.61967-0.63260-0.58075
Baltimore Orioles
Pittsburgh Pirates
46.9%
53.1%
-119
+109
-114
+114
-1½+135
+1½-152
-1½+140
+1½-145
5
2
-0.63156-0.62978-0.75732
Tampa Bay Rays
Colorado Rockies
55.7%
44.3%
-160
+147
-155
+153
-1½-115
+1½-103
-1½-113
+1½+100
7
10
-0.92425-0.93130-0.81464
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
58.2%
41.8%
-181
+166
-180
+168
-1½-115
+1½-104
-1½-105
+1½+100
7
9
-0.99821-1.00169-0.87206
Oakland Athletics
Detroit Tigers
58.1%
41.9%
+202
-225
+211
-235
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½+105
-1½-119
4
5
-0.39090-0.37732-0.87008
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
44.8%
55.2%
+139
-152
+138
-147
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+135
3
0
-0.89265-0.88230-0.80234
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
56.7%
43.3%
+162
-177
+170
-180
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
1
10
-0.46833-0.45497-0.83589
Pittsburgh Pirates
Washington Nationals
40.0%
60.0%
-117
+107
-112
+108
-1½+142
+1½-150
-1½+145
+1½-160
7
4
-0.63974-0.64712-0.91612
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
39.9%
60.1%
+107
-117
+110
-118
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-192
-1½+175
1
2
-0.63974-0.63113-0.50964
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-2 (0.500)0-0.76435 
Sportsbooks42-2 (0.500)0-0.76784 
DRatings42-2 (0.500)0-0.76472
-0.00037
0.00313

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.