English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
West Ham United		25.4%
48.4%		26.2%
+369
-111
+345
-110
2
1		-1.56695-1.52266-1.37113
Newcastle United
Southampton		23.6%
52.3%		24.1%
-115
+345
-120
+365
4
1		-0.64356-0.62953-1.44515
Manchester United
Aston Villa		58.2%
19.8%		22.0%
+135
+220
+130
+230
1
3		-1.17883-1.20564-1.61843
Arsenal
Chelsea		27.0%
47.8%		25.2%
+172
+176
+160
+175
1
0		-1.02026-1.00550-1.30959
Leicester City
Everton		40.4%
32.6%		26.9%
+199
+158
+190
+155
2
0		-1.11301-1.10395-0.90572
Fulham
Manchester City		4.5%
84.7%		10.8%
+1487
-557
+1325
-550
1
2		-0.19317-0.20534-0.16611
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.7%		26.6%
+118
+270
+115
+265
3
2		-0.80216-0.80410-1.39999
Bournemouth
Leeds United		21.4%
54.2%		24.4%
+452
-154
+425
-159
3
4		-0.52562-0.53507-0.61225
Bournemouth
West Ham United		16.4%
62.2%		21.4%
+496
-159
+510
-170
0
2		-0.51204-0.50526-0.47538
Newcastle United
Tottenham		14.6%
66.0%		19.5%
+240
+126
+225
+130
2
1		-1.24348-1.21130-1.92696
Arsenal
Southampton		43.8%
30.0%		26.2%
-211
+619
-215
+600
1
1		-1.59751-1.55932-1.33811
Leicester City
Wolverhampton		43.5%
29.3%		27.2%
+223
+140
+230
+134
4
0		-1.19267-1.22241-0.83211
Fulham
Leeds United		24.2%
49.9%		25.9%
+254
+110
+255
+105
3
2		-1.28370-1.30593-1.42014
Manchester United
Chelsea		38.0%
35.3%		26.7%
+262
+115
+253
+120
1
1		-1.30394-1.26567-1.31935
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		6.3%
80.5%		13.2%
+1354
-420
+1225
-480
1
3		-0.22640-0.23413-0.21698
Crystal Palace
Everton		21.8%
53.5%		24.8%
+214
+161
+200
+155
0
3		-0.97923-0.97814-0.62607
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.