English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chelsea
Aston Villa		48.6%
29.0%		22.3%
-143
+435
-140
+425
3
1		-0.56475-0.57800-0.72091
Southampton
West Ham United		34.7%
40.9%		24.5%
+320
-110
+302
-105
3
2		-1.47033-1.42929-1.05953
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		22.7%
56.1%		21.2%
+435
-140
+410
-137
0
3		-0.56532-0.59153-0.57723
Arsenal
Norwich City		56.9%
21.3%		21.9%
-195
+540
-202
+550
5
0		-0.44804-0.44613-0.56463
Leicester City
Manchester City		20.7%
59.8%		19.4%
+1983
-725
+1915
-825
3
6		-0.14767-0.16013-0.51403
Liverpool
Tottenham		45.1%
31.0%		23.9%
-145
+390
-146
+400
2
2		-1.47946-1.43645-1.43154
Manchester City
Newcastle United		70.8%
13.9%		15.3%
-725
+2026
-780
+2000
4
0		-0.15983-0.16592-0.34496
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		46.0%
29.9%		24.0%
-123
+458
-130
+440
0
0		-1.24838-1.25671-1.42516
Arsenal
Leeds United		47.5%
28.5%		24.1%
-180
+525
-165
+500
4
1		-0.47151-0.48771-0.74545
Newcastle United
Liverpool		14.9%
69.2%		16.0%
+2897
-850
+2300
-950
1
3		-0.12205-0.13480-0.36859
Everton
Chelsea		27.5%
50.4%		22.1%
+1450
-400
+1400
-500
1
1		-1.98340-2.01216-1.50968
West Ham United
Arsenal		28.1%
48.3%		23.5%
+264
+105
+260
+105
0
2		-0.75012-0.76632-0.72701
Southampton
Crystal Palace		39.5%
34.7%		25.8%
+320
-105
+300
+115
2
2		-1.28815-1.23296-1.35472
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.8%
33.6%		26.6%
+344
+100
+345
+110
1
0		-1.52303-1.51014-0.92100
Leeds United
Manchester City		12.2%
73.9%		13.9%
+1641
-625
+1850
-750
0
7		-0.17289-0.17073-0.30267
Aston Villa
Norwich City		48.2%
27.7%		24.0%
+110
+280
+110
+265
2
0		-0.77486-0.78946-0.72933
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.