English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 4, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Newcastle United
Tottenham 		14.6%
66.0%		19.5%
-116
+280
+120
+265
0.90
2.14		3.04
o3¾-102
u3¾-112
o3½-120
u3½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
West Ham United
Manchester City 		8.3%
77.2%		14.5%
+750
-318
+750
-350
0.73
2.59		3.32
o3½-112
u3½+100
o3½-115
u3½+100
Chelsea
Crystal Palace 		58.4%
18.8%		22.8%
-105
+275
-110
+265
1.81
0.92		2.73
o3-101
u3-112
o3-105
u3-115
Everton
Bournemouth 		58.8%
18.6%		22.6%
+413
-138
+385
-135
1.83
0.93		2.76
o2½-112
u2½+100
o2½-115
u2½+100
Leicester City
Aston Villa 		47.1%
27.6%		25.2%
+760
-285
+800
-310
1.55
1.13		2.68
o3¼+105
u3¼-118
o3-120
u3+110
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion 		50.4%
23.8%		25.8%
-110
+320
-115
+330
1.52
0.96		2.48
o2¾+100
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+125
Games for May 2, 2021
Games for Jan 5, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Manchester United		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+157
+175
+150
+180
2
0		-0.97397-0.95670-2.31851
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		26.9%
47.4%		25.8%
+313
-114
+315
-116
2
2		-1.39175-1.37531-1.35658
Liverpool
West Ham United		61.0%
17.5%		21.5%
-250
+645
-280
+700
5
0		-0.36798-0.34500-0.49477
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		22.8%
53.0%		24.2%
+380
-150
+360
-158
2
2		-1.53414-1.57219-1.42064
Southampton
Crystal Palace		39.4%
32.8%		27.8%
+540
-185
+550
-185
1
2		-0.45936-0.46447-1.11615
Manchester City
Leicester City		58.5%
19.0%		22.5%
-357
+925
-350
+925
2
0		-0.27903-0.28242-0.53602
Leicester City
Liverpool		20.7%
55.8%		23.4%
+2500
-1250
+2740
-1550
1
3		-0.11215-0.10296-0.58311
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		54.5%
21.5%		23.9%
-120
+328
-120
+330
0
2		-1.48886-1.50233-1.53656
Fulham
Chelsea		9.7%
74.2%		16.1%
+560
-212
+550
-210
2
1		-1.91759-1.91359-2.33531
West Ham United
Southampton		33.1%
40.4%		26.4%
+135
+205
+140
+200
1
0		-0.88814-0.91864-1.10482
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth		43.7%
28.0%		28.3%
+255
+109
+250
+105
0
0		-1.33830-1.36113-1.26114
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		42.4%
31.1%		26.5%
+280
-104
+280
-105
0
3		-0.70591-0.70031-1.16812
Everton
Manchester City		10.1%
73.7%		16.2%
+815
-290
+775
-280
1
1		-1.73881-1.70672-1.82059
Liverpool
Tottenham		47.5%
27.3%		25.3%
-157
+390
-165
+380
6
3		-0.52020-0.52562-0.74539
Bournemouth
Manchester United		6.7%
80.0%		13.3%
+320
-112
+310
-115
3
0		-1.46421-1.44244-2.69681
Wolverhampton
Leicester City		22.7%
52.5%		24.8%
+142
+202
+155
+200
3
0		-0.91339-0.94721-1.48404
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.