Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Utrecht
Twente 		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+425
-154

1.43
1.24		2.67
o2¾-118
u3-132

Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+700
-278

0.81
2.33		3.14
o3-140
u3¼-110

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam		68.9%
13.3%		17.7%
-123
+427
-140
+420
1
1		-1.29175-1.33298-1.73076
Twente
Heracles Almelo		32.8%
40.5%		26.7%
+114
+274
+115
+250
1
1		-1.26468-1.25713-1.32197
Zwolle
Ajax		4.2%
86.9%		8.9%
+1204
+600
+1400
-650
0
3		-0.88037-0.19152-0.14076
Utrecht
Feyenoord		21.3%
56.2%		22.4%
+700
-262
+675
-275
1
2		-0.35057-0.36164-0.57602
Heracles Almelo
Groningen		24.8%
48.6%		26.6%
+370
-110
+340
-115
1
0		-1.56332-1.53234-1.39425
Vitesse
Willem II		54.9%
22.1%		23.1%
+140
+228
+105
+265
0
1		-1.20424-1.34508-1.51095
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk		48.2%
27.0%		24.8%
+155
+195
+155
+185
2
0		-0.95852-0.98556-0.72915
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		13.2%
68.5%		18.3%
+769
-254
+750
-275
1
2		-0.36136-0.35988-0.37853
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente		29.6%
45.8%		24.6%
+615
-185
+500
-165
0
2		-0.46164-0.52492-0.78062
Sparta Rotterdam
Vitesse		17.8%
61.6%		20.6%


1
0		-1.72429
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard		36.5%
37.6%		25.9%
+164
+189
+165
+175
0
3		-1.08693-1.06372-0.97763
AZ Alkmaar
Zwolle		71.7%
11.6%		16.6%
-127
+379
-130
+375
1
2		-1.59544-1.60664-2.15089
Feyenoord
Heracles Almelo		56.0%
20.8%		23.1%
-260
+723
-230
+585
4
1		-0.35528-0.41312-0.57930
RKC Waalwijk
PSV Eindhoven		5.4%
83.7%		10.8%
+1674
-575
+1800
-650
0
2		-0.18109-0.19439-0.17755
Groningen
Heerenveen		35.8%
35.4%		28.8%
+249
+127
+240
+125
1
3		-0.84765-0.86074-1.03933
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax		4.8%
85.6%		9.6%
+2740
-887
+2500
-1100
1
2		-0.13643-0.13615-0.15559
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59352 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15559
0.43793

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.