NFL Football Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsQuarterbacksWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
PointsTotal
Points
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Carolina Panthers (5-11)
Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)
Unknown
Unknown
38.1%
61.9%
+215
-240
+225
-235
+5½-105
-5½-110
+6-110
-5½-108
23.4
26.6
50.0
o40-108
u40-110
o40-110
u40-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Unknown
Unknown
29.3%
70.7%
+180
-197
+180
-190
+4-105
-4-110
+4-108
-4-108
23.5
30.2
53.7
o41½-110
u41½-105
o41½-110
u41½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Detroit Lions (5-11)
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
Unknown
Unknown
25.9%
74.1%
-158
+138
-145
+130
-3-105
+3-115
-3+100
+3-110
20.7
28.0
48.7
o51½-108
u51½-110
o51½-110
u52-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
Unknown
Unknown
75.7%
24.3%
-120
+104
-122
+110
-1-110
+1½-110
-1½-108
+1½-108
28.3
20.4
48.7
o47½-110
u47+100
o47½-110
u47½-110
San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Unknown
Unknown
32.5%
67.5%
-280
+235
-274
+250
-6½-105
+6½-112
-6-108
+6½-110
24.1
28.9
53.0
o43-110
u44½-110
o44-110
u44½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
Unknown
Unknown
77.8%
22.2%
-160
+140
-160
+145
-3-110
+3-108
-3-108
+3-108
33.0
23.4
56.4
o46-115
u46½-110
o46½-110
u46½-110
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Points
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
20.7%
79.3%
+123
-135
+130
-138
+2½-102
-2½-115
+2½-108
-2½-108
38.5
o35-105
u36-110
o35½-110
u36-110
1st Q
00:11
7
0
Chicago Bears (8-8)
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
28.6%
71.4%
+115
-125
+110
-128
+2-110
-1½-110
+2-108
-1½-110
38.2
o43½-110
u44-110
o43-110
u43½-110
1st Q
03:05
0
0
Houston Texans (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
34.5%
65.5%
-125
+107
-120
+110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-108
+2-110
46.6
o46½-110
u47-110
o46½-110
u47-110
1st Q
01:08
0
13
New York Giants (6-10)
Cleveland Browns (11-5)
27.2%
72.8%
+240
-285
+255
-285
+6½-115
-6½-105
+6½-108
-6½-108
49.7
o38½-110
u38-105
o38-110
u38½-110
1st Q
02:07
7
7
Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)
New Orleans Saints (12-4)
16.4%
83.6%
+125
-140
+125
-138
+2½+100
-2½-115
+3-120
-2½-110
49.2
o49-110
u49½-110
o49-110
u49-110
1st Q
02:08
0
3
Denver Broncos (5-11)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
14.3%
85.7%
+220
-258
+235
-250
+6-110
-6-105
+6-110
-5½-108
46.2
o40½-110
u41½-115
o40½-110
u40½-110
1st Q
02:56
14
0
Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Tennessee Titans (11-5)
55.0%
45.0%
+140
-160
+150
-160
+3-113
-3+100
+3-105
-3-108
44.4
o37-112
u37½-110
o37-110
u37-110
1st Q
01:05
10
7

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Points
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
74.4%
25.6%
-500
+430
-450
+415
-11-104
+11-114
-10½-110
+10½-110
32
6
-0.20410-0.21295-0.29536
Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals
52.5%
47.5%
+150
-165
+150
-160
+3+101
-3-115
+3+100
-3-110
22
16
-0.93869-0.93156-0.64392
Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
25.7%
74.3%
+360
-450
+348
-400
+8-110
-7½-109
+8-110
-7½-110
22
24
-0.23562-0.24609-0.29710
San Francisco 49ers
Tennessee Titans
34.1%
65.9%
-175
+160
-175
+160
-3½+100
+3½-114
-3-110
+3+100
17
20
-0.97625-0.97625-0.41717
Washington Football Team
Philadelphia Eagles
42.6%
57.4%
+395
-460
+385
-430
+10-109
-10-109
+10-110
-9½-110
17
27
-0.21989-0.22645-0.55593
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
49.0%
51.0%
+290
-350
+320
-340
+7-104
-7-110
+7-110
-7-110
10
20
-0.28493-0.26860-0.67293
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
47.6%
52.4%
-300
+265
-300
+260
-7-114
+7+105
-7-110
+7-101
17
9
-0.31137-0.31508-0.74185
Las Vegas Raiders
Cleveland Browns
39.6%
60.4%
-140
+130
-135
+130
-2½-110
+3-115
-2½-110
+3-120
16
14
-0.55696-0.56352-0.92518
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
47.8%
52.2%
+460
-585
+460
-550
+11½-106
-11½-109
+11½-110
-11½-110
9
0
-1.75481-1.74721-0.73773
Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens
45.2%
54.8%
-385
+335
-360
+320
-8½-110
+9½-110
-8-110
+9½-110
31
30
-0.25434-0.26562-0.79403
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
38.4%
61.6%
+130
-140
+140
-145
+3-114
-3+100
+3-115
-2½-110
15
10
-0.85085-0.88394-0.95808
Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers
40.1%
59.9%
+320
-395
+330
-380
+9-109
-9-105
+9-110
-8½-110
13
31
-0.26112-0.25755-0.51308
Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
64.8%
35.2%
-700
+520
-690
+575
-13-104
+13-109
-12½-110
+13-110
12
30
-1.86021-1.93088-1.04279
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
68.0%
32.0%
+230
-250
+230
-260
+6-109
-6-109
+6-110
-6-105
30
16
-1.21110-1.21885-0.38581
Tennessee Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers
39.5%
60.5%
+110
-120
+103
-116
+1-105
-1-109
+1-110
-1-110
13
19
-0.62755-0.65089-0.50182
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
49.9%
50.1%
-550
+450
-550
+500
-12-109
+12½-110
-11½-110
+12½-110
21
6
-0.19464-0.17980-0.69509
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.57018 
Sportsbooks64-1 (0.750)1-0.56163 
DRatings63-3 (0.500)0-0.63096
-0.06078
-0.06933

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/11/21
 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLTMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin ConferenceWin Super Bowl
1Kansas City Chiefs (0-0-0)12.44.60.095.3%81.5%36.4%26.8%
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0)11.55.50.090.1%73.2%33.2%14.6%
3Buffalo Bills (0-0-0)10.76.30.079.9%55.3%13.8%8.4%
4Green Bay Packers (0-0-0)10.56.50.081.6%67.6%17.4%8.0%
5Baltimore Ravens (0-0-0)10.36.70.073.8%52.7%10.6%6.1%
6Seattle Seahawks (0-0-0)9.77.30.063.2%29.1%10.5%4.0%
7Los Angeles Rams (0-0-0)9.87.20.065.2%32.8%10.6%4.0%
8Indianapolis Colts (0-0-0)9.67.40.068.0%54.2%7.1%3.9%
9San Francisco 49ers (0-0-0)9.67.40.062.8%26.9%8.6%3.1%
10Cleveland Browns (0-0-0)9.67.40.060.4%32.4%5.6%2.7%
11Dallas Cowboys (0-0-0)9.17.90.058.0%46.8%6.5%2.5%
12New England Patriots (0-0-0)9.27.80.053.1%24.8%4.7%2.1%
13Tennessee Titans (0-0-0)8.88.20.051.5%35.2%3.6%1.7%
14Minnesota Vikings (0-0-0)8.38.70.040.0%19.5%4.8%1.7%
15Los Angeles Chargers (0-0-0)8.88.20.045.3%9.3%3.1%1.7%
16Washington Football Team (0-0-0)8.09.00.037.8%27.4%4.0%1.6%
17New Orleans Saints (0-0-0)8.68.40.043.0%14.5%4.5%1.6%
18Arizona Cardinals (0-0-0)8.48.60.038.1%11.2%3.6%1.1%
19Miami Dolphins (0-0-0)8.88.20.045.7%16.9%2.1%1.0%
20Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-0)8.38.70.036.2%12.1%1.9%0.9%
21Chicago Bears (0-0-0)7.59.50.026.4%11.0%1.8%0.7%
22Denver Broncos (0-0-0)8.18.90.033.6%6.5%1.1%0.4%
23Carolina Panthers (0-0-0)7.69.40.025.3%6.2%1.3%0.4%
24New York Giants (0-0-0)7.29.80.023.7%16.0%0.6%0.2%
25New York Jets (0-0-0)6.710.30.013.4%3.0%0.5%0.2%
26Las Vegas Raiders (0-0-0)7.29.80.017.9%2.7%0.5%0.2%
27Philadelphia Eagles (0-0-0)6.610.40.015.5%9.8%0.6%0.2%
28Atlanta Falcons (0-0-0)7.49.60.023.4%6.1%0.7%0.1%
29Cincinnati Bengals (0-0-0)6.510.50.08.9%2.8%0.2%0.1%
30Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0-0)6.510.50.012.9%8.2%0.2%0.1%
31Detroit Lions (0-0-0)5.611.40.05.9%1.9%0.1%0.0%
32Houston Texans (0-0-0)5.111.90.04.1%2.4%0.1%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.

Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. You will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more.