English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fulham
Liverpool		6.7%
79.6%		13.7%
+915
-315
+900
-370
0
1		-0.29437-0.28662-0.22837
Chelsea
Arsenal		38.8%
34.2%		27.0%
+458
-158
+500
-175
1
3		-0.51164-0.48800-1.07236
Everton
Leicester City		25.5%
49.5%		24.9%
+303
+105
+280
+101
2
2		-1.27214-1.30637-1.38910
Tottenham
Liverpool		20.7%
56.6%		22.7%
+448
-181
+455
-188
3
4		-0.46968-0.46909-0.56966
Leeds United
Bournemouth		45.3%
27.8%		26.9%
+201
+148
+190
+145
1
4		-0.93326-0.93407-1.27945
Manchester City
Fulham		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-345
+1073
-368
+1060
2
1		-0.27740-0.25979-0.21104
Southampton
Newcastle United		43.1%
30.5%		26.3%
+1149
-385
+1050
-373
1
3		-0.25825-0.27753-1.18721
Aston Villa
Manchester United		14.5%
66.5%		19.0%
+385
-131
+365
-135
0
1		-0.57855-0.58718-0.40770
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		40.0%
31.3%		28.8%
+475
-161
+450
-174
0
6		-0.50099-0.50491-1.16203
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		39.6%
32.2%		28.2%
+205
+159
+208
+155
3
4		-0.97310-0.96982-1.13314
Manchester United
Tottenham		42.8%
31.2%		26.0%
+145
+188
+140
+180
2
2		-1.35530-1.35147-1.34854
Bournemouth
Southampton		16.6%
62.2%		21.1%
+197
+157
+190
+155
1
0		-1.11700-1.09533-1.79456
Newcastle United
Everton		19.7%
57.4%		22.9%
-121
+377
-130
+375
4
1		-0.62592-0.61554-1.62496
Arsenal
Manchester City		12.8%
68.3%		18.8%
+420
-147
+425
-165
1
4		-0.54697-0.51845-0.38101
Liverpool
West Ham United		61.0%
17.5%		21.5%
+104
+270
-105
+265
2
1		-0.72336-0.71392-0.49477
Leicester City
Leeds United		53.5%
22.4%		24.1%
+207
+138
+190
+140
1
1		-1.31438-1.32754-1.42391
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.