Completed Games
| Time | Teams | Win | Best ML | Best Spread | Final Points | Sportsbook Log Loss | DRatings Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings Dallas Cowboys | 55.6% 44.4% | +200 -235 +205 -235 | +5-115 -5-105 +5-105 -4½-110 | 34 26 | -1.13286-1.14407 | -0.58727 | |
| Tennessee Titans San Francisco 49ers | 55.4% 44.6% | +568 -750 +600 -800 | +13-105 -13-105 +12½-108 -12½-108 | 24 37 | -0.15671-0.14903 | -0.80721 | |
| Detroit Lions Los Angeles Rams | 19.8% 80.2% | +230 -255 +225 -250 | +6+100 -6-110 +6-105 -6-105 | 34 41 | -0.35197-0.35820 | -0.22123 | |
| Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints | 16.2% 83.8% | -140 +123 -140 +125 | -2-115 +2½-105 -2½-108 +2½-105 | 17 20 | -0.83326-0.83833 | -0.17664 | |
| Green Bay Packers Denver Broncos | 79.6% 20.4% | -123 +105 -115 +110 | -1½-110 +1½-110 -1-110 +2-105 | 26 34 | -0.75647-0.75294 | -1.59160 | |
| Indianapolis Colts Seattle Seahawks | 39.5% 60.5% | +475 -600 +575 -650 | +12½-105 -13-110 +13½-110 -13-108 | 16 18 | -0.18473-0.15781 | -0.50311 | |
| Washington Football Team New York Giants | 50.6% 49.4% | +132 -150 +135 -150 | +2½+105 -2½-120 +3-110 -2½-115 | 29 21 | -0.87213-0.87962 | -0.68199 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers Kansas City Chiefs | 12.0% 88.0% | +237 -285 +245 -270 | +6-105 -6-110 +6-108 -6-108 | 16 13 | -1.25124-1.25776 | -2.12085 | |
| Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals | 83.0% 17.0% | -175 +160 -165 +155 | -3½+105 +3-104 -3-110 +3+100 | 24 0 | -0.47276-0.48848 | -0.18581 | |
| Buffalo Bills New England Patriots | 63.3% 36.7% | -142 +125 -139 +125 | -2½-110 +2½-107 -2½-105 +2½-105 | 35 31 | -0.56384-0.56768 | -0.45763 | |
| Cleveland Browns Chicago Bears | 50.1% 49.9% | +292 -310 +320 -365 | +7½-116 -7-115 +7½-108 -7½-107 | 3 31 | -0.29071-0.26493 | -0.69595 | |
| New York Jets Jacksonville Jaguars | 50.1% 49.9% | +613 -800 +700 -900 | +13½-110 -13½-110 +14-110 -13½-108 | 20 48 | -0.14651-0.13005 | -0.69493 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders Philadelphia Eagles | 50.6% 49.4% | +586 -850 +600 -850 | +12½-104 -13-110 +12½-107 -12½-108 | 0 31 | -0.15093-0.14813 | -0.70530 | |
| Arizona Cardinals Houston Texans | 60.9% 39.1% | +390 -510 +425 -525 | +10-105 -10-110 +10-105 -10-108 | 20 40 | -0.21840-0.20438 | -0.93854 | |
| Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22.3% 77.7% | +235 -285 +250 -270 | +6-105 -6-112 +6-102 -5½-110 | 29 28 | -1.24698-1.26808 | -1.49946 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Chargers | 45.8% 54.2% | -115 -105 -115 +105 | -1-105 +1-113 -1-105 +1-105 | 19 22 | -0.71505-0.74028 | -0.61302 |
Season Prediction Results
| Games | Record (Pct) | No Pick | +/- | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 16 | 9-7 (0.562) | 0 | -0.58403 | |
| Sportsbooks | 16 | 9-7 (0.562) | 0 | -0.58436 | |
| DRatings | 16 | 8-8 (0.500) | 0 | -0.78003 | -0.19600 -0.19567 |
Season Simulation
*Through all games played on or before 09/11/21| Regular Season | Postseason | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | W | L | T | Make Playoffs | Win Division | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl |
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs (0-0-0) | 12.4 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 95.3% | 81.5% | 36.4% | 26.8% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0) | 11.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 90.1% | 73.2% | 33.2% | 14.6% |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills (0-0-0) | 10.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 79.9% | 55.3% | 13.8% | 8.4% |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers (0-0-0) | 10.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 81.6% | 67.6% | 17.4% | 8.0% |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens (0-0-0) | 10.3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 73.8% | 52.7% | 10.6% | 6.1% |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks (0-0-0) | 9.7 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 63.2% | 29.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams (0-0-0) | 9.8 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 65.2% | 32.8% | 10.6% | 4.0% |
| 8 | Indianapolis Colts (0-0-0) | 9.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 68.0% | 54.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers (0-0-0) | 9.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 62.8% | 26.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| 10 | Cleveland Browns (0-0-0) | 9.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 60.4% | 32.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys (0-0-0) | 9.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 58.0% | 46.8% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| 12 | New England Patriots (0-0-0) | 9.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 53.1% | 24.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans (0-0-0) | 8.8 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 51.5% | 35.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings (0-0-0) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 19.5% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers (0-0-0) | 8.8 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 45.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 16 | Washington Football Team (0-0-0) | 8.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 37.8% | 27.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints (0-0-0) | 8.6 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 43.0% | 14.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals (0-0-0) | 8.4 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 38.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins (0-0-0) | 8.8 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 45.7% | 16.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-0) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 36.2% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| 21 | Chicago Bears (0-0-0) | 7.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 22 | Denver Broncos (0-0-0) | 8.1 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 33.6% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 23 | Carolina Panthers (0-0-0) | 7.6 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 24 | New York Giants (0-0-0) | 7.2 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 23.7% | 16.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 25 | New York Jets (0-0-0) | 6.7 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 13.4% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders (0-0-0) | 7.2 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 17.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Philadelphia Eagles (0-0-0) | 6.6 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 15.5% | 9.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Atlanta Falcons (0-0-0) | 7.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 29 | Cincinnati Bengals (0-0-0) | 6.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 8.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0-0) | 6.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 12.9% | 8.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 31 | Detroit Lions (0-0-0) | 5.6 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Houston Texans (0-0-0) | 5.1 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Predictions Methodology
The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.
Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. You will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more.
Related Blog Posts
Randomness, Edge, and Volume in Sports Betting Outcomes
We dig into the data behind variance and expectation.
Top 5 Sweepstakes Sportsbooks
Find out who makes our top five sweepstakes sportsbook list.
2025-2026 NFL Season Preview
Here is our 2025-2026 NFL season preview based on 1,000 simulations.
The Predictive Power of Prediction Markets
Discover how prediction markets deliver accurate forecasts.
Creating a Ratings Model with Bradley-Terry
Modeling with the Bradley-Terry model in Python